THE WELCH COMPANY
440 Davis Court #1602
San Francisco, CA 94111-2496
415 781 5700


S U M M A R Y


DIARY: September 12, 1999 02:00 PM Sunday; Rod Welch

Visit Morris on NSF proposal, business planning, and Medit improvements.

1...Summary/Objective
2...Planning Support for Dave Vannier
3...Business Plan for NSF Proposal - 2 Years Optimistic for Com Metrics
4...Empathic Design Business Plan Needed for Com Metrics
........Morris noted SDS cannot displace wordprocessing because in that
5...Insert Key On Off for Menu Ops
6...000003 Menu Turn Insert Off
7...Memory for Medit Turning CGA Off in W98


..............
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CONTACTS 
0201 - Intel Corporation                    408 765 8080
020101 - Mr. Morris E. Jones; Director of Architecture =408 545 9521

SUBJECTS
Bridge from Known to New Work Methods
Commercial Partners for Phase II Funding
Partners Locate, Develop
NSF Research Support
Communication Main Factor of Success, Management Productivity
Writing SDS Different from Wordprocessing
Profit/Loss Statement
Evaluate Market Conditions
Sales Do Not Reflect Potential
Disruptive Technology SDS Replaces Wordprocessing with KM
Wordprocessing/Spreadsheet Primary Useful Tools on Personal Computers
Spreadsheet for Knowledge SDS Replaces Wordprocessing Disruptive Tech
Disruptive Tecnology
Wordprocessing, Spreadsheets, Need New Application Ellison, Larry
Wordprocessing Dominated by Microsoft

2317 -    ..
2318 - Summary/Objective
2319 -
231901 - Follow up ref SDS 52 0000, ref SDS 49 0000.
231902 -
231903 - Arrived later than planned, but accomplished quite a bit.  Morris made
231904 - bread, Rachel drew a bird on the computer, and Steve was a lot of help
231905 - on Morris' computer game.  Steve has amazing command of strategy and
231906 - organization of war games for a 10 year old.  Morris fixed the insert
231907 - command for the SDS menu. ref SDS 0 0672  Did not have enough time to
231908 - solve the upper memory issue -- seemed to establish there may be a
231909 - free block of memory available for Medit.  More research is needed on
231910 - this. ref SDS 0 9766  Morris developed an initial PL spreadsheet for a
231911 - business plan, that seems well suited for a sustaining technology,
231912 - like a PIM.  More work is needed to develop a business plan for SDS
231913 - under POIMS, which is a disruptive technology.
231914 -
231915 -     [On 990915 sent Morris letter on this record. ref SDS 55 0001]
231916 -
231917 -
231918 -
231919 -
2320 -
2321 -
2322 - Progress
2323 -
232301 -  ..
232302 - Planning Support for Dave Vannier
232303 -
232304 - Follow up ref SDS 52 0001
232305 -
232306 - Any further ideas from discussion on 990911?
232307 -         ..
232308 -     1.  Support Dave Vannier at Intel...
232309 -
232310 -         Morris indicated Dave's assignment to direct planning will be
232311 -         an interesting challenge because the IA-64 program is complex.
232312 -
232313 -         "Complex" planning typically applies a CPM effort of some kind
232314 -         that sets a schedule and budget.  Com Metrics improves these
232315 -         methods with metrics for communications that uses activities
232316 -         in the schedule, and accounts in the budget organize
232317 -         communication.
232318 -
232319 -         Com Metrics for program management was reviewed on 950202.
232320 -         ref SDS 6 0333  On 970603 Dave explained goals for improving
232321 -         management. ref SDS 13 5803  On 970828 demonstrated this
232322 -         advantage to Intel. ref SDS 14 7773
232323 -
232324 -         Morris will call Dave on the Com Metrics support initiative,
232325 -         per Dave's letter on 990907, ref SDS 48 0149, and our telecon
232326 -         yesterday. ref SDS 52 9077
232327 -
232328 -            [Morris did not follow up.
232329 -
232330 -         We reviewed need for research through trial and error how to
232331 -         apply Com Metrics for the Intel management style and practice.
232332 -         cited by Grove on 980307, ref SDS 16 0261, and Morris on
232333 -         980722. ref SDS 19 2937  On 960103 Dave discussed "style" at
232334 -         Intel meetings.  This is very much part of the NSF proposal
232335 -         issue, and the marketing issue of the SDS business plan,
232336 -         below. ref SDS 0 7308 and ref SDS 0 2703
232337 -         ..
232338 -         This would provide "experience" for a group of people to
232339 -         interact with Com Metrics on the Internet in a way that
232340 -         improves their work.  This is the best way for people to learn
232341 -         the benefits of adding "intelligence" to management, as we
232342 -         discussed on 990718. ref SDS 30 8966
232343 -
232344 -         Grove supports experimenting to discover better methods,
232345 -         reviewed on 980307. ref SDS 16 3416
232346 -
232347 -            [On 990915 a coordinator is a big help in giving people
232348 -            access to Com Metrics on the Internet. ref SDS 56 4988]
232349 -         ..
232350 -     2.  Intel support for NSF proposal
232351 -
232352 -         Morris thinks Intel's "lab" might be able to support the NSF
232353 -         effort, per review of Dave's letter on 990907. ref SDS 48 5982
232354 -
232355 -             [Morris did not follow up.]
232356 -
232357 -         Our general aim with Dave is to find other Intel staff who
232358 -         understand Dave's feeling that Com Metrics aligns with Intel
232359 -         goals to use technology for management support.  We need to
232360 -         work with them on Dave's idea in the Byte article about
232361 -         integrating time and information to improve management, per
232362 -         the letter to Dave on 990909. ref DIP 13 0001
232363 -
232364 -
232365 -  ..
232366 - Business Plan for NSF Proposal - 2 Years Optimistic for Com Metrics
232367 -
232368 - Follow up ref SDS 52 9077, ref SDS 30 6384.
232369 -
232370 - Morris advised understanding yesterday that Keith suggested a business
232371 - plan would facilitate review of the NSF proposal at Intel, is
232372 - incorrect. ref SDS 52 9007
232373 - ..
232374 - Morris discussed a number of subjects that require consideration
232375 - for a business plan.  I was late in arriving, due to difficulties
232376 - transferring data to the notebook for the meeting.  This resulted in
232377 - less time to write out specific details on the business plan.
232378 -
232379 -     [On 000802 developed initial business plan for SDS. ref SDS 60
232380 -     0001
232381 -
232382 - Morris looked for a prototype business plan from others he has seen
232383 - and prepared, but could not find anything for guidance.  He mentioned
232384 - having educational materials in the car, which he uses as part of a
232385 - class he teaches, or has taught, that covers this subject; but, there
232386 - was not enough time to use this material today.
232387 -
232388 - Morris prepared an initial Profit and Loss (PL) spreadsheet using
232389 - Excel, showing a two year effort. (see comments below. ref SDS 0 2703)
232390 -
232391 - Morris asked what firms market products similar to SDS?
232392 -
232393 - I explained there are no products similar to SDS.
232394 -
232395 - Morris suggested Outlook Express.
232396 -
232397 - I asked if he thinks Outlook Express is similar to SDS, whether it can
232398 - reasonably be used to support Communication Metrics, as he has seen
232399 - the process develop over the past 15 years, per his explanation on
232400 - 911123? ref SDS 1 0477
232401 -
232402 - Morris said that SDS is different from Outlook Express.
232403 -
232404 - Morris asked about Personal Information Management (PIM), like
232405 - contact, document, and time management programs.  He said a lot of
232406 - salesman use programs, like "ACT," for example.
232407 -
232408 -
232409 -
2325 -

SUBJECTS
Disruptive Technology Enabling Forces Overcome Fear Paradigm Blocks U
Disruptive Technology Requires Learning Teaching Advertising Enable C
Empathic Design Watch What Customers Do Disover What Customers Need
Market Innovation Sustain Competitive Advantage Needs Disruptive Tech
Usability Engineering Human Centered Design User Centered Design
Empathic Design Computers Strengthens Intelligence
Advertise Teach Com Metrics KM Intelligence Enable Culture of Knowled

3310 -
331001 -  ..
331002 - Empathic Design Business Plan Needed for Com Metrics
331003 -
331004 - SDS uses POIMS that expands the role of technology for integrating
331005 - personal and organizational management, to aid leadership. ref OF 3
331006 - 1054
331007 -
331008 - Morris noted that leaders do not use technology, so we cannot obtain
331009 - data for this market to build a business spreadsheet model.
331010 -
331011 - General Hatch made the same point on 951229, but seemed to recognize
331012 - that it would be a good idea for technology to support "intelligence,"
331013 - because that helps leadership. ref SDS 10 2036
331014 -
331015 -     [On 000302 Eugene Kim made a similar point for the Colloquium at
331016 -     Stanford. ref SDS 58 1248
331017 - ..
331018 - We considered briefly that this is a new market which requires
331019 - different methods, called "empathic design," to identify market size
331020 - (Morris used TAM and SAM in the spreadsheet), as explained by Clay
331021 - Christensen in his book "The Innovators Dilemma," reviewed on 990257.
331022 - ref SDS 23 3034  Leaders do not use technology because there is no
331023 - technology that generates "intelligence," except for Com Metrics.
331024 - Leaders don't know about Com Metrics yet.  Our task is to plan a
331025 - program to help executives, managers and everyone else discover the
331026 - power of "intelligence," to solve their problems, as they discovered
331027 - the power of the alphabet in the prior period.
331028 -
331029 - Morris noted it took several thousand centuries for civilization to
331030 - finally "get it" with the alphabet.  Since we are simply improving
331031 - alphabet technology, and not inventing it from scratch, we can
331032 - hopefully expedite acceptance of "intelligence." ref OF 3 0582
331033 -
331034 - We looked up in the SDS subject index and found that Symantec sells
331035 - ACT.
331036 -
331037 - Morris found financial information on the Internet about Symantec, for
331038 - guidance on identifying a market for Com Metrics based on sales of
331039 - ACT.
331040 -
331041 -
331042 -  ..
331043 - PL spreadsheet needs further work on following points...
331044 -
331045 -    1.  A much larger market exists for SDS and Com Metrics than is
331046 -        represented by ACT, since ACT is a sustaining technology that
331047 -        does not improve the alphabet, intelligence, management and
331048 -        earnings by using automated integration of time and
331049 -        information, cited by Dave in his Byte article. ref OF 8 8843
331050 -        Intel recognizes this is a different kind of technology that
331051 -        does not presently exist, as seen from the discussion with Dave
331052 -        on 950927. compare ref SDS 8 2867, ref SDS 8 8943, and
331053 -        ref SDS 8 7732
331054 -        ..
331055 -    2.  More than two years is needed to define and grow a new
331056 -        market for adding "intelligence" to management, because this is
331057 -        a disruptive technology. as reviewed on 990527. ref SDS 23 1221
331058 -
331059 -        At that time, Morris noted strong cultural forces have to be
331060 -        overcome, which stretches out the time to profitability, but
331061 -        also reflects the depth of the market. ref SDS 23 1233
331062 -
331063 -        I suggested 5 years; Morris feels 3 - 4 years is the most that
331064 -        will attract investor interest.  He said we have to work within
331065 -        the parameters of Intel's investment managers.
331066 -
331067 -        This is correct for sustaining technologies; however, we are
331068 -        advancing a disruptive technology to create a new market, and
331069 -        that requires different investment horizons, as discussed on
331070 -        990527. ref SDS 23 5258
331071 -
331072 -            For example on 990615 submitted SDS as disruptive
331073 -            technology in NSF proposal. ref SDS 24 2808
331074 -
331075 -        It seems likely that we need 1 - 2 years to develop a Windows
331076 -        based version of SDS and test it in the field at places like
331077 -        Intel, for ease of use, and integration with large scale
331078 -        systems.  Another year is needed to test the product in various
331079 -        markets -- business, government, education -- I think by paying
331080 -        people to change their current practice, so we can study the
331081 -        process and develop ways to transition, within the meaning of
331082 -        empathic design. ref SDS 23 3034  The NSF proposal, for
331083 -        example, essentially offers an opportunity to pay people to use
331084 -        Communication Metrics in order to discover that "intelligence"
331085 -        improves earnings.
331086 -        ..
331087 -        Morris explained "Disruptive Technology" displaces
331088 -        existing markets, i.e., it is a zero sum game, such that sales
331089 -        of SDS reduce sales of something else.  This posits a "static"
331090 -        pie, where vendors fight to get the biggest piece, or at least
331091 -        a piece that sustains the business.
331092 -
331093 -        Morris noted SDS cannot displace wordprocessing because in that
331094 -        case Microsoft will replicate SDS to protect market share. He
331095 -        indicated that SDS cannot be protected legally, say by patent
331096 -        or copyright.  This probably needs more consideration.
331097 -
331098 -              [On 990915 sent Morris letter on this. ref SDS 55 0001
331099 -
331100 -              [On 000703 Morris advised MS Word is primary tool for
331101 -              email. ref SDS 59 6030
331102 -
331103 -            SDS is a spreadsheet for knowledge, which is a different
331104 -            function from wordprocessing, as Morris and I discussed on
331105 -            940114. ref SDS 4 6295
331106 -
331107 -            One idea Morris has suggested is to use MS Word as the base
331108 -            program to create an SDS program.  This might be possible,
331109 -            and in that case, there would be less reason to attract the
331110 -            attention of Microsoft.
331111 -
331112 -            Suppose, however, it happened that Microsoft tried to
331113 -            create an SDS program.  This would engender competition to
331114 -            create the best SDS program, and that would bring us
331115 -            precisely to where we want to be:  a lot of smart people
331116 -            working on the right thing to lift civilization to next
331117 -            plateau by using technology to lift the capacity to think,
331118 -            remember and communicate.
331119 -
331120 -            Intel and everyone else would benefit by having productive
331121 -            meetings and fewer mistakes, from using better tools and
331122 -            business practices.
331123 -
331124 -        Our aim is not to fight over a static "pie."  We are bringing a
331125 -        new ingredient to management, "intelligence," ref OF 3 5820,
331126 -        derived from automated integration of time and information,
331127 -        cited by Dave in his Byte article, to grow a much bigger "pie,"
331128 -        or indeed a different kind of pie, that has better benefits
331129 -        than the current pie, to stay with the "food fight" analogy.
331130 -        People can continue using MS Word, Excel and anything Microsoft
331131 -        wants to sell.  SDS makes all this stuff productive, by
331132 -        converting information it produces into useful knowledge.
331133 -
331134 -        In one sense, the view of "disruptive technology" as a zero sum
331135 -        game, means standing down on SDS, POIMS, Com Metrics, because
331136 -        we cannot compete with an established firm, Microsoft.  This
331137 -        conflicts with Christensen's point about the vulnerability of
331138 -        established firms, and it denies Intel, Microsoft and everyone
331139 -        else, especially new generations, of a powerful capability to
331140 -        enhance the alphabet for performing knowledge work, by
331141 -        integrating time and information to boost intelligence.
331142 -
331143 -        Do we really want that -- to stand by and deny a solution to a
331144 -        growing problem, just because we cannot prove with current
331145 -        market data, the size of a new market in 2 - 5 - 10 years?
331146 -
331147 -        We reviewed Christensen's ideas in his book "Innovator's
331148 -        Dilemma" from the record on 990527 where he says traditional
331149 -        business planning based on market projections do not work well
331150 -        for disruptive technologies. ref SDS 23 7372
331151 -
331152 -        ...and further: Markets that do not exist cannot be analyzed:
331153 -        Suppliers and customers must discover them together.  Not only
331154 -        are the market applications for disruptive technologies unknown
331155 -        at the time of their development, they are unknowable.
331156 -        ref SDS 23 1221
331157 -
331158 -        Morris has a good command of Christensen's language that asks
331159 -        what will be displaced.  He drew charts showing existing
331160 -        products relative to demand, and a steeper trend line that
331161 -        represents technology leap ahead of current demand, which
331162 -        threatens existing solutions, as demand grows in future years.
331163 -
331164 -        I cite passages that say we have to invest to discover how to
331165 -        help people, the market, discover how to use a technology no
331166 -        one is using now, but is very helpful.
331167 -        ..
331168 -        Experience indicates that money to pay for Com Metrics
331169 -        will not come from Microsoft or anyone else, but rather from
331170 -        the savings in time, money and frustration people now suffer,
331171 -        that will increase in the years ahead.  We are not competing
331172 -        against anyone, because no one else can accomplish this goal.
331173 -        The only challenge is to educate people about the power of
331174 -        "intelligence," and that technology to integrate time and
331175 -        information boosts this power, much better than the alphabet
331176 -        does by itself.
331177 -
331178 -            [Earlier today, article on front page of Sunday paper
331179 -            reported on high cost of mistakes in medical practice.
331180 -            ref SDS 53 0001]
331181 -
331182 -
331183 -
331184 -
331185 -
3312 -

SUBJECTS
Insert Function Turn On Off

3504 -
350401 -  ..
350402 - Insert Key On Off for Menu Ops
350403 -
350404 - Follow up ref SDS 52 0910, ref SDS 46 0001.
350405 -
350406 - Morris created a new command "ioff," that simply turns insert
350407 - function off.
350408 -
350409 -
350410 -
350411 -  ..
350412 - 000003  Menu Turn Insert Off
350413 -
350414 - Line 300, ref OF 9 5964, -entry 80, 20 lines below, applied Morris'
350415 - new command, ioff.
350416 -
350417 - Tested and found that it works, as intended.
350418 -
350419 -
350420 -
350421 -
350422 -
3505 -

SUBJECTS
Config.sys
Memory Management
CGA Off Improves Memory for SDS
Memory management (avoid crashing)
Memory capacity of Medit, increase.

4308 -
430801 -  ..
430802 - Memory for Medit Turning CGA Off in W98
430803 -
430804 - Follow up ref SDS 52 6381, ref SDS 40 7492.
430805 -
430806 - On 990910 disconnected feature to automatically extend SDS Schedule.
430807 - ref SDS 51 0001
430808 -
430809 - We want to accomplish the OS2 feature of freeing CGA memory to
430810 - increase conventional RAM for DOS to run SDS, as explained in the
430811 - discussion on 990906. ref SDS 46 0001
430812 -
430813 - Use notebook to demonstrate CGA feature in OS2.
430814 -
430815 - Morris searched his w98 development CDs for accomplishing this
430816 - objective, per my letter on MSDN, ref DIP 11 4599, submitted on
430817 - 990906.
430818 -
430819 - We spent an hour or so on this, and seemed to wind up with not being
430820 - able to identify what, if anything, is assigned to upper memory in
430821 - DOS under w98.  This is an indication that nothing is assigned, and
430822 - so it can be used as we wish.
430823 -
430824 - This is the opportunity that needs deeper research.
430825 -
430826 - Someone knows what is assigned, or if nothing is assigned, and how to
430827 - use that memory productively, as in OS2.
430828 -
430829 - Talked to Morris the next day, and he suspects this memory may be
430830 - assigned to VGA use in some fashion.  He can investigate this with a
430831 - debug operation that takes 15 minutes.
430832 -
430833 - If the memory is free, or if the VGA stuff can be relocated, then we
430834 - can use this for Medit.
430835 -
430836 -    [On 990919 segmented record on Grove's book. ref SDS 57 0001]
430837 -
430838 -    [On 000904 Morris found documentation for DOS that helped improve
430839 -    Medit file management. ref SDS 61 0001
430840 -
430841 -    [On 000907 letter to Morris asks if new DOS information can help on
430842 -    getting more memory for SDS. ref SDS 62 I57O
430843 -
430844 -
430845 -
430846 -
430847 -
430848 -
430849 -
Distribution. . . . See "CONTACTS"