THE WELCH COMPANY
440 Davis Court #1602
San Francisco, CA 94111-2496
415 781 5700
rodwelch@pacbell.net


S U M M A R Y


DIARY: September 10, 1997 05:00 PM Wednesday; Rod Welch

Attend PMI dinner meeting; report for Newsletter.

1...Summary/Objective
2...Cost Benefit Project Manager, Level of Effort, CEO, CFO, Etc.
3...Scitor Unviels Powerful New PM Tools
4...Jill Harrington Opens PMI Season; Theme: Vision to Results
.......Don Berri, Ex-President PMI NCC, Eulogized
.......Judy Painter Praised for Leadership during 1996, 1997
.......Executive Committee Introduced
5...Strategic Plan Advances Chapter Goals, Membership Needs
.....Tactical Plan
.....Volunteers Outstanding Response; Lot's to Do This Year
6...News Group Launched on World Wide Web
7...Roger Bush conducts "Town Hall" Meeting, shows...
8...Winning People Over is a Two-way Process: "Communication"
9...Trust Grows from Accuracy, Showing Willingness to Listen
10...Accuracy Requires Feedback Metrics and Alignment
.......Executive Has No Time to Think
.......No time to Say Hello, Good-by, I'm late, I'm late...


..............
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CONTACTS 
0201 - PG&E Grid Customer Services                                                                                                                                        O-00000642 0201
020101 - Mr. Bill DeHart, PMP
020102 - Project Manager
0202 - PMI - N. Calif Chapter                                                                                                                                             O-00000259 0305
020201 - Ms. Jill Harrington  PMP; President

SUBJECTS
Cost/Benefit of Better Communications
Cost Benefit - Increase Usefulness, Reduce
Level of Effort, Calculate Cost Benefit
Overhead Managers are Unproductive
Risk Management, Contingency Analysis, Value at Risk
Entropy in Communications
Calculate Risk Management Exposure NPV
Cost/Benefit Project Manager, Level of
Measuring Communication Issues
Dan Ono

1412 -
1412 -    ..
1413 - Summary/Objective
1414 -
141401 - Follow up ref SDS 43 0000, ref SDS 39 0000.
141402 -
141403 - Inquired about a calculation of cost/benefit for project managers and
141404 - learned that Dan Ono indicated he is working on it, but no work
141405 - product has been submitted.
141407 -  ..
141408 - Roger Bush reported an executive said she does not have time to think,
141409 - so they are hiring Saxon-Hamilton to help.  Rober does not conclude
141410 - this indicates a work environment where extra help is needed for
141411 - "thinking." ref SDS 0 3479
141412 -
141413 -      [On 970915 sending articles on this event for publication in the
141414 -      PMI NCC Newsletter, ref SDS 55 EW4J
141415 -
141416 -
141418 -  ..
1415 -
1416 -
1417 - Progress
1418 -    ..
1419 -
141901 - Cost Benefit Project Manager, Level of Effort, CEO, CFO, Etc.
141902 -
141903 - Prior to the start of the Forum program, I visited with the VP of
141904 - Membership, Bob Holm, who had a table set up with PMI publications and
141905 - membership materials.  I asked if PMI has information on calculating
141906 - the cost/benefit of a Project Manager or similar level of effort
141907 - positions?
141909 -  ..
141910 - Bob said he is unaware of PMI publications on this, but he understands
141911 - that Dan Ono is working on this.
141913 -  ..
141914 - I asked when Dan is scheduled to submit work product for review?
141915 - ..
141916 - Bob did not know.  He suggested I ask Judy Painter, past
141917 - president of PMI, since he recalled hearing about Dan's project from
141918 - Judy.
141920 -  ..
141921 - Judy had just arrived, and was talking with someone.  I waited until
141922 - it was convenient to say hello and then asked her the same question.
141924 -  ..
141925 - Judy said he had heard that Dan Ono is making this calculation, but he
141926 - has not submitted anything.  Judy indicated that Dan has not submitted
141927 - a status report on his progress nor requested support for this effort.
141929 -  ..
141930 - I asked Jill Harrington the same question.  She is unaware of when
141931 - Dan expects to submit a report.
141932 -
141933 -
141934 -
1420 -

SUBJECTS
Monthly Meetings
Newsletter
Executive Committee
Strategic Planning

1806 -
180701 -  ..
180702 - Scitor Unviels Powerful New PM Tools
180703 -
180704 - I visited Todd prior to the start of the Forum.  He explained some
180705 - advantages of his CPM program called Scitor.  They seem to have
180706 - several products:
180707 -
180708 -         Project Scheduler 7
180709 -
180710 -             This seems to be CPM program
180712 -          ..
180713 -         Process Charter for Windows
180714 -
180715 -             This is a flow charter for business process analysis,
180716 -             including information and communication mapping.  It
180717 -             supports reengineering and TQM to meet ISO 9000
180718 -             requirements.  Provides advanced formatting of figures,
180719 -             lines and text.
180720 -             ..
180721 -             It seems similar to CPM by applying time and
180722 -             resource factors.
180724 -              ..
180725 -             Product liturature says this programs gives flowcharts
180726 -             "intelligence" to support "What if" analysis for process
180727 -             benchmarking.
180729 -              ..
180730 -             It does not seem to support organization charts like
180731 -             Visio.
180733 -          ..
180734 -         Todd Carothers
180735 -         North American Sales Manager
180736 -         Business Solutions Group
180737 -         333 Middlefield Road
180738 -         Menlo Park, CA  94025
180739 -         415 462 4236  fax 415 462 4201
180740 -         ..
180741 -         AOL:  ToddCar Compuserve:  76163:455 Email:
180742 -         tcarothers@scitor.com http://www.scitor.com
180744 -  ..
180745 - Todd demonstrated an advantage of Scitor's Project 7 that let's the
180746 - user create multiple fields for free form text to explain distinctions
180747 - between activities and levels in the schedule.  This is a weakness in
180748 - Microsoft Project.
180750 -  ..
180751 - Todd advised that Project 7 will convert a Microsoft Project schedule
180752 - to Project 7 format.
180754 -  ..
180755 - Scitor provided courtesy CDs, called "First Look," for all attendees
180756 - this evening.  It contains code for testing Project 7 program. Scitor
180757 - does not provide upgraded code via Internet to purchase the program.
180758 - ..
180759 - You have to uninstall the test code, then install a new program
180760 - received from Scitor after making a purchase.
180761 - ..
180762 - The program costs about $600.
180764 -  ..
180765 - Todd advised Scitor provides unlimited support at no cost.  This does
180766 - not include providing application support to make an actual schedule.
180768 -  ..
180769 - Todd seemed to indicate this product is not in the same market as
180770 - Welcome's Open Plan.
180771 -
180772 -
180774 -  ..
180775 - Jill Harrington Opens PMI Season; Theme:  Vision to Results
180776 -
180777 - The program director, Deanna Doherty, introduced newly elected chapter
180778 - president Jill Harrington.
180779 -
180780 -          [See article for Newsletter on Jill's remarks, ref SDS 55
180781 -          line 136.]
180783 -        ..
180784 -       Don Berri, Ex-President PMI NCC, Eulogized
180785 -
180786 -       Jill paid tribute to Don Berri who died recently.  He was PMI
180787 -       NCC president in 1979 and was a recipient of the Wally Kruz
180788 -       award in 1982.  There is an article in the September Newsletter
180789 -       on Don's death.
180790 -       ..
180791 -       Dan was one of the original charter members of PMI NCC.
180793 -        ..
180794 -       Sherrill McDonald knew Don from his work at Kaiser Engineers.
180795 -
180796 -           Sherrill told me before the start of the event this evening
180797 -           that Dan actually took his own life, evidently despondent
180798 -           over poor health.
180799 -
180800 -           Sherrill said Don had not seemed like himself for the past
180801 -           year.
180802 -
180804 -        ..
180805 -       Judy Painter Praised for Leadership during 1996, 1997
180806 -
180807 -       Jill thanked Judy Painter on behalf of the entire membership for
180808 -       outstanding leadership last year.  Judy is not on the Past
180809 -       President's Advisory Counsel; and she is Chair of the Planning
180810 -       and Nominating Committee
180811 -
180812 -
180814 -        ..
180815 -       PMI NCC Goal to increase Membership
180816 -
180818 -        ..
180819 -       Executive Committee Introduced
180820 -
180821 -       Rose Wilkins                    Deanna Doherty
180822 -       Mike                            Bill DeHart
180823 -       Bob Holm                        Ed Diemer (absent)
180824 -       Jim Coughlin
180825 -       Sandra Washington
180827 -        ..
180828 -       Sandra was introduced and announced that next month's dinner
180829 -       meeting will be held at the Oakland Marriot.
180830 -
180831 -
180833 -  ..
180834 - Strategic Plan Advances Chapter Goals, Membership Needs
180835 -
180836 - Jill announced that this past summer the Executive Committee began a
180837 - process to review the chapter's mission.  A key objective is to ensure
180838 - the chapter is meeting the needs of the membership.
180839 -
180840 -     This seems to me we are running scared, when we start asking the
180841 -     membership what the objectives should be of PMI.
180843 -      ..
180844 -     We have an organization.  It was established to promote project
180845 -     management, and to that end people seek to join the organization.
180846 -     Our mission should be to define project management and provide
180847 -     support for those seeking to practice it.
180848 - ..
180849 - Jill said something about a "due diligence" process, as part of
180850 - the strategic plan.
180851 -
180853 -      ..
180854 -     Tactical Plan
180855 -
180856 -     Jill announced a "repeatable process" concerning what members
180857 -     want.
180858 -
180859 -     Members want PMP training and test preparation
180861 -      ..
180862 -     Rose Wilkins is working on a training program.  She needs a venue
180863 -     for the "pilot."  Jill asked for an organization to offer
180864 -     facilities for PMI NCC to conduct training classes.
180865 -
180867 -      ..
180868 -     Volunteers Outstanding Response; Lot's to Do This Year
180869 -
180870 -     Jill reported that last year membership support through volunteer
180871 -     efforts made possible the success of vital chapter projects and
180872 -     initiatives.  This laid the groundwork for this year's ambitious
180873 -     agenda.  She said there is lots to do again this year.
180875 -      ..
180876 -     Jill asked members to contact chapter VPs listed in the News
180877 -     Letter about volunteering for work in their area of interest.
180878 -     Examples of volunteer help needed include:
180879 -
180880 -       •  Asilomar 1998 needs help in planning, speaker identification,
180881 -          logistics and more.
180882 -
180883 -       •  <EY90 Membership Directory needs support.
180884 -
180885 -       •  Newsletter needs volunteer writers for monthly meetings and
180886 -          articles.
180887 -
180888 -
180890 -  ..
180891 - News Group Launched on World Wide Web
180892 -
180893 - Bill DeHart, VP of Communications, announced the launch of the Chapter
180894 - News Group on the World Wide Web, beginning next week.
180895 -
180896 -     [On 970915 Bill changed this to a Discussion Group and the launch
180897 -     date is indefinite, ref SDS 55 9674]
180899 -  ..
180900 - Roger Bush, Senior Consultant with Saxon-Hamilton, Management-
180901 - Consulting Group, will facilitate the Chapter's first News Group
180902 - discussion, and respond to questions based on his presentation this
180903 - evening:
180904 -
180905 -                    Winning People Over
180906 - ..
180907 - The outline for Roger's presentation this evening will be
180908 - available for downloading from the Web site.
180910 -  ..
180911 - Access to the News Group is through the Chapter Web site at:
180912 -
180913 -                     WWW.PMINCC.ORG
180915 -  ..
180916 - The News Group enables the membership to share its problems, solutions
180917 - and ideas on advancing the art and practice of project management,
180918 - while gaining insights and advice of industry experts, like Roger.
180920 -  ..
180921 - Bill advised that PMI membership can make the News Group an electronic
180922 - "repository" of experience for effective knowledge growth, as called
180923 - for in the article by Harvey Levine published in the May 1997 issue of
180924 - PM Network p. 19, ref SDS 48 line 539.
180925 -
180926 -
180927 -
180928 -
180929 -
1810 -

SUBJECTS
Communications, Feedback
Communication 90% Manager's Time
New World Order Align Communications, Testing Metrics
Alice in Wonderland, No Time to Understand,
Executive No Time to Think No time to Say Hello, Good-by, I'm late,

6107 -
610801 -  ..
610802 - Roger Bush conducts "Town Hall" Meeting, shows...
610803 - Winning People Over is a Two-way Process:  "Communication"
610804 -
610805 - Roger Bush, with the wit and charm of Phil Donahue and the expertise
610806 - of Peter Drucker, roled up his sleeves this evening and engaged the
610807 - audience in a powerful give-and-take about the nitty gritty of winning
610808 - people over to get things done.
610810 -           ..
610811 -          [On 970915 prepared article for PMI Newsletter on this
610812 -          presentation, ref SDS 55 0860]
610814 -        ..
610815 -       This presentation reflected in part the difference between
610816 -       communication for sales, as taught in university programs
610817 -       focused on getting people to say "yes," i.e., "winning people
610818 -       over," and the communication needed to carry out the work
610819 -       product that is sold, per discussion with Jane Hiller-Carpenter
610820 -       at the Wharton School of Business on 950523, ref SDS 12 2130.
610822 -  ..
610823 - Communication is the key factor in project success according to PMI
610824 - articles, ref SDS 48 8888, and professional events, ref SDS 29 5621.
610825 - So it was fitting to begin this year's PMI season with a "how to"
610826 - presentation that supplements last year's opening presentation on a
610827 - system of communication metrics by Dr. Ray Levitt of Stanford
610828 - University.  Metrics and expertise through Roger's training make
610829 - communication effective.
610830 -
610832 -  ..
610833 - Trust Grows from Accuracy, Showing Willingness to Listen
610834 - Accuracy Requires Feedback Metrics and Alignment
610835 -
610836 - Roger showed through his immeasurable talents that winning people over
610837 - takes meaningful communication about the other person's point of view.
610838 - "Communication is a two-way street that builds a relationship of
610839 - trust," said Roger Bush.  Trust requires accuracy aligning a person's
610840 - goals and understandings with a wide spectrum of related sources.  The
610841 - surest way to impair trust is to present information that conflicts
610842 - with what people say and intend for meeting project requirements,
610843 - organizational goals, policies, prior commitments, regulations and a
610844 - huge array of other constraints in the business environment.
610846 -  ..
610847 - Roger asked questions, cajoiled and handed people the microphone to
610848 - enage the audience in this critical task of getting feedback to
610849 - discover understanding and build shared meaning in winning people over
610850 - for a successful project.  Demonstrating how "feedback" produces
610851 - effective communication brought to life the practices and wisdom of
610852 - the PMBOK (e.g., section 2.4.2, ref SDS 15 1940), and ISO standards
610853 - for Project Management (e.g., section 5.2 principal 1, ref SDS 15
610854 - 1593).
610856 -  ..
610857 - Roger emphasized communication for sales and marketing requires using
610858 - common sense.  Learn what the other person cares about -- their "hot
610859 - buttons" -- and frame discussions on matters that interest the
610860 - customer, and therefore lead to inquiry and approval, rather than
610861 - confusion, caution, disdain, and rejection.  Body language and
610862 - expressions, as well as direct comments are critical.  Silence can be
610863 - the loudest response.  Be observant and sensitive.  Listen better than
610864 - you talk.
610865 -
610867 -        ..
610868 -       Executive Has No Time to Think
610869 -       No time to Say Hello, Good-by, I'm late, I'm late...
610870 -
610871 -       Roger described a key challenge today is information overload.
610872 -       The busiesss environment of constant meetings, calls and email
610873 -       encompasses executives in a "bubble."  People focused on the
610874 -       bottom line and the big picture operate in a world driven by 25
610875 -       words or 30 second sound bites.  There is no time to study
610876 -       critical details that later explode into big problems, because
610877 -       everyone is busy with problems overlooked last week, last month
610878 -       and last year.
610879 -
610880 -            On 921127 Morris recognized this problem at Chips and
610881 -            Technologies, ref SDS 2 0674, which was original noticed by
610882 -            Aristotle in 400 BC. ref OF 1 4564  When people are busy,
610883 -            there is never enough time to listen and learn, i.e., to
610884 -            think.
610886 -        ..
610887 -       Roger related a recent meeting with an executive of a major
610888 -       financial institution who is hiring Saxon-Hamilton for
610889 -       management support to bring closure on projects.
610891 -        ..
610892 -       The executive said they need analysis and planning of complex
610893 -       issues, but they have so many meetings that nobody...
610894 -
610895 -
610896 -                             has time to think
610897 -
610899 -        ..
610900 -       Not enough time to think is the new reality of an information
610901 -       explosion cited by Drucker on 931130. ref SDS 4 1855  Research
610902 -       on 970829 shows that lack of analysis causes continual mistakes
610903 -       due to limited span of attention. ref SDS 53 4476
610905 -            ..
610906 -           [On 050517 case study cognitive overhead shows culture
610907 -           resists due diligence to collaborate, communicate,
610908 -           investigate, study, analyse, and verify accuracy that
610909 -           levearages experience for taking effective action, because
610910 -           people do not have time to think. ref SDS 82 PY4U
610912 -        ..
610913 -       Henry Kissinger laments the information age makes management an
610914 -       "Alicein in Wonderland" of continual bumbling. reviewed 940609,
610915 -       ref SDS 7 4238  A growing pandemic is cited by Robert McNamera
610916 -       on 950417, ref SDS 9 5872, by Johanna Neuman's book on 960311,
610917 -       ref SDS 26 1696, by experience at Intel on 960103, ref SDS 21
610918 -       4950, illustrated by the call on 960223. ref SDS 25 1429  USACE
610919 -       did not have enough time to think on 970405 to prepare memo on
610920 -       bid discrepancies, ref SDS 47 3157  USACE reported on 970723
610921 -       similar difficulty getting closure on issues ref SDS 51 2026,
610922 -       and on 970211 nobody had "enough time to remember" critical
610923 -       details, ref SDS 45 7777, another example on 970110 of everyone
610924 -       relying on "guess and gossip." ref SDS 40 2487
610926 -        ..
610927 -       Mental blind spots caused by limited span of attention cause big
610928 -       mistakes when there is not enough time to think, under Murphy's
610929 -       Law, reviewed on 940609. ref SDS 6 0020
610931 -        ..
610932 -       An example from Broadwater Dam on 920210, ref SDS 1 0488, where
610933 -       managers cannot keep their head above water. ref SDS 1 8400
610935 -        ..
610936 -       Reflects managers not having enough time to use good management
610937 -       practices per IS0 requirements, ref SDS 18 3245, resulting in
610938 -       wasting 70% of day in unproductive meetings, per AP report on
610939 -       960205. ref SDS 24 0000
610941 -        ..
610942 -       Bill DeHart cited this problem at PG&E's project with Sprint and
610943 -       Bechtel. ref SDS 49 6603  Max Wideman says managers aver making
610944 -       the "front end investment" of time for analysis and planning,
610945 -       ref SDS 52 1897.
610946 -
610947 -           [On 970916 stock manager confirms problem. ref SDS 56 7723.]
610949 -            ..
610950 -           [On 970917 Roger did not have enough time to think about
610951 -           ideas. ref SDS 57 2294, and ref SDS 58 1365.]
610953 -            ..
610954 -           [On 970919 Caltrans does not have enough time to investigate
610955 -           new methods. ref SDS 59 6432]
610957 -            ..
610958 -           [On 970923 submitted NWO... article to National Review for
610959 -           publication based on Roger's disclosure. ref SDS 60 9764]
610961 -            ..
610962 -           [A key aspect of the problem is that the number of subjects
610963 -           which require thinking exceeds the span of attention bound
610964 -           by human biology, ref SDS 61 2020]
610966 -            ..
610967 -           [On 971008 report by USACE that Communication Metrics solves
610968 -           the problem of limited span of attention. ref SDS 62 1273]
610970 -            ..
610971 -           [On 971017 HQUSACE no time to think. ref SDS 63 3428.]
610973 -            ..
610974 -           [On 971119 Dave Vannier reported he is spending all day in
610975 -           meetings. ref SDS 65 3849]
610977 -            ..
610978 -           [On 971108 investigated ways to give managers time to think
610979 -           using the Internet to deliver "intelligence" faster, better,
610980 -           cheaper. ref SDS 64 8882
610982 -            ..
610983 -           [On 980307 Andy Grove's book is endorsed by Peter Drucker
610984 -           saying it will make people think, but Drucker does not say
610985 -           how people will find time to think. ref SDS 67 4629]
610987 -            ..
610988 -           [On 980307 Andy Grove's book says new realities of business
610989 -           require managers to change work practices. ref SDS 67 3151]
610991 -            ..
610992 -           [On 980412 CBS 60 Minutes broadcast program explaining that
610993 -           too much information reduces time people have to think. see
610994 -           ref SDS 68 2025]
610996 -            ..
610997 -           [On 980416 Schawb reported increased operating expenses
610998 -           caused reduced earnings, lower stock price. ref SDS 69 4269]
611000 -            ..
611001 -           [On 980510 report productivity slowed dramatically and unit
611002 -           labor costs escalated. ref SDS 70]
611004 -            ..
611005 -           [On 980807 article says employees have too much information
611006 -           not enough time for reflection, thinking. ref SDS 71 2426]
611008 -            ..
611009 -           [On 980815 article says U.S. "Intelligence" failures stem
611010 -           from too much information, not enough understanding.  Where
611011 -           do people get time to "understand"? ref SDS 73 1173
611013 -            ..
611014 -           [On 980808 IBM solving limited span of attention by hard
611015 -           work. ref SDS 72 3379]
611017 -            ..
611018 -           [On 980917 IBM does not have enough time to think about
611019 -           "intelligence." ref SDS 74 5313]
611021 -            ..
611022 -           [On 990303 scientific paper on limited ability to process
611023 -           information. ref SDS 75 6120]
611025 -            ..
611026 -           [On 990625 doctors do not have time to perform communication
611027 -           tasks in medical handbook. ref SDS 76 0889]
611029 -            ..
611030 -           [On 990625 CEOs fail by executing sound management
611031 -           pracitces. ref SDS 77 9671]
611033 -            ..
611034 -           [On 010109 executive at SRI overbooked for meetings.
611035 -           ref SDS 78 LG5M
611037 -            ..
611038 -           [On 011003 IT engineer giving up, productivity paralyzed by
611039 -           hopeless quagmire of complexity due to information overload.
611040 -           ref SDS 79 EC5N
611042 -            ..
611043 -           [On 011023 DOD does not have enough time to investigate
611044 -           intelligence for saving time and money. ref SDS 80 0001
611046 -            ..
611047 -           [On 041012 medical management exasperating because staff
611048 -           fail to invest time for organizing the record, causing
611049 -           mistakes, delay and cost escalation. ref SDS 81 NV49
611051 -        ..
611052 -       This reflects the article by the U.S. Air Force Institute of
611053 -       Technology, published by PMI, and reviewed on 970707, that
611054 -       entropy in the information base causes failure in communication
611055 -       that leads to cost growth. ref SDS 50 0108  Earlier on 970522
611056 -       Uncle Jim submitted an article published by the militry that
611057 -       cites information overload causes people to spend 80% of their
611058 -       time looking for information.
611060 -        ..
611061 -       Henry Kissinger cites an "Alice in Wonderland" environment where
611062 -       there is not enough time for analysis that converts information
611063 -       into useful knowledge for planning and decisions, ref SDS 7
611064 -       4238.  Dr. Kissinger in his recent book, Diplomacy (p. 833-844),
611065 -       complains that fast paced information technology causes
611066 -       decisions based on emotion and the mood of the moment, rather
611067 -       than priorities and capabilities. ref SDS 7 4886
611069 -        ..
611070 -       Roger Bush helped bring closure to this issue.  Since technology
611071 -       will continue to grow in the 21st Century, its impact poses a
611072 -       challenge to the practice of project management.  Roger was
611073 -       asked if this new environment suggests the need for a new role
611074 -       and work practices to ensure that time is devoted to "thinking"
611075 -       which people are finding there is not enough time to perform?
611076 -       Roger advised that careful adherence to the PMBOK is the path to
611077 -       the future.
611079 -        ..
611080 -       Members can hear more of Roger's ideas, exchange views and
611081 -       discuss real problems with Roger when the Chapter launches its
611082 -       new Discussion Group on our web site in the near future.  Our
611083 -       Web address:
611084 -
611085 -           http://www.pmincc.org.
611086 -
611087 -
611088 -
611089 -
611090 -
611091 -
611092 -
611093 -
611094 -
6111 -
6112 -
Distribution. . . . See "CONTACTS"