CONTACTS 

SUBJECTS
Network Computer (NC) competes with PC
Windows NT, Backoffice, Zero Administration Windows
Mainframe Overtaken by Windows NT
Windows 95, Unix
Empowerment to Accomplish Good Management
Effectance Computers Empower Intelligence
Empower Intelligence using Communication

1509 -
1509 -    ..
1510 - Summary/Objective
1511 -
151101 - Follow up ref SDS 19 0000, ref SDS 17 0000.
151102 -
151103 -
151104 -
151105 -
151106 -
151107 -
151109 -  ..
1512 -
1513 -
1514 - Progress
1515 -
151501 - An article on page 58 of the 970526 issue for Fortune magazine
151502 - describes Microsoft's efforts to sell NT to replace Unix and
151503 - mainframes for large scale business network computing. ref OF 1 0001,
151504 - ref OF 1 6811 and ref OF 1 9403  Bill Gates describes it as a
151505 - superior "economic model." ref OF 1 9503
151506 -
151507 -
151509 -  ..
151510 - NT v. Unix and Mainframes
151511 -
151512 - Windows NT for the mainframe market was discussed by Digital at their
151513 - seminar in San Francisco on 951010.....
151514 -
151515 -        Alliance to offer Microsoft NT
151516 -        as operating system for DEC
151517 -        new line of computers...................... ref SDS 7 5Y52,
151519 -         ..
151520 -        Synergy between DEC innovations
151521 -        to develop superior hardware
151522 -        and Microsoft marketing success............ ref SDS 7 3961
151524 -         ..
151525 -        Microsoft training DEC on using
151526 -        Windows NT; they have a common
151527 -        email system............................... ref SDS 7 0764
151528 -
151530 -  ..
151531 - NT sales last year increased 86%, vs. 12% growth for other software
151532 - that runs corporate networks.  This year Microsoft will license NT
151533 - software to another 7.4 million corporate users exceeding $1.8
151534 - billion, up from $591 million in 1996, ref OF 1 line 23. NT outsold
151535 - all versions of Unix last year 732K to 600K.
151536 -
151537 -        NT Server version sells for $625
151538 -        NT Desktop edition sells for $85
151539 -
151541 -  ..
151542 - Backoffice Competes Against Oracle, Novel
151543 -
151544 - Backoffice is a group of applications for NT similar to MS Office for
151545 - W95 and similar to Lotus Smartsuite, ref OF 1 line 24.  Exchange is
151546 - part of Backoffice and seems to provide similar programs to those in
151547 - Outlook under Windows 95.  It competes with Lotus Notes, ref OF 1 line
151548 - 163, and with IBM, Novel and Oracle, ref OF 1 line 171.
151550 -  ..
151551 - Sales of Backoffice are spurred by belief that since it is made by
151552 - Microsoft it will run better on NT than products by other vendors,
151553 - similar to the market dynamics that occurred in Widows 3x and W95...
151554 - ref OF 1 line 66, ref OF 1 line 124.
151556 -       ..
151557 -      Killer Application
151558 -
151559 -      There are no "killer" or "compelling" applications cited in the
151560 -      article, as set out at ref SDS 2 3001.  Backoffice applications
151561 -      are "compelling" by association with Microsoft's ownership of the
151562 -      operating system, and the consequent assumed enhanced
151563 -      compability.  People prefer a single operating system and Bill
151564 -      has it. ref OF 1 9403
151565 -
151566 -           [On 990215 Joe Firestone is working on creating a "killer
151567 -           app." ref SDS 20 8003]
151569 -       ..
151570 -      Bill Gates cites Microsoft's sales volume as evidence that the
151571 -      Wintel PC is a superior economic model, ref OF 1 9503.  This
151572 -      reflects the advantage of writing for a single operating system
151573 -      rather than 34 separate versions of Unix. ref OF 1 8403.  The
151574 -      same marketing method is used for Backoffice by pricing it below
151575 -      competitors offerings, ref OF 1 0503, it becomes industry
151576 -      standard causing those who write software programs to support it
151577 -      and not other systems... ref OF 1 6302, ref OF 1 7209, as has
151578 -      occurred with Apple.
151579 -
151580 -          [On 990301 OMG promotes "middleware". ref SDS 21 0867]
151582 -       ..
151583 -      In 1995, DEC cited mass appeal of Microsoft as basis for
151584 -      strategic partnership, ref SDS 7 line 336.
151585 -
151587 -       ..
151588 -      Empowerment Marketing Advantage PC
151589 -
151590 -      Gates cites "empowerment" that PC users will not give up to use
151591 -      cheaper, less capable NC and Java systems, ref OF 1 9400, similar
151592 -      to Andy Grove's analysis reviewed on 960304. ref SDS 11 7500 and
151593 -      ref SDS 10 1005
151595 -       ..
151596 -      Would this idea similarly draw more users if PCs could empower
151597 -      people by adding "intelligence" to information, as the Corps of
151598 -      Engineers report on 970416 says that Communication Metrics does,
151599 -      ref SDS 15 1191 and on 970418, ref SDS 16 5368, and discussions
151600 -      with Intel. ref SDS 6 2899, ref SDS 17 2701
151601 -
151602 -
151604 -  ..
151605 - NT Competing Against NC and Mainframes, NC Sales Very Slow
151606 -
151607 - Windows NT in combination with PCs running W95, ref OF 1 line 42,
151608 - seems to compete with Java and the NC, ref OF 1 line 279, considered
151609 - at the meeting with Intel on 970603, ref SDS 17 line 121.
151611 -  ..
151612 - Bill Gates says slow sales of NC and Java show the PC adds value and
151613 - is more effective for users, ref OF 1 line 279, ref OF 1 line 485.
151614 - Windows NT is a direct competitor of Mainframes, ref OF 1 line 103,
151615 - ref OF 1 line 138, and Novell's Netware for corporate intranet (LAN -
151616 - WAN) support, ref OF 1 line 74, ref OF 1 line 171.
151618 -  ..
151619 - Earlier versions of NT were unreliable, but Microsoft has invested
151620 - "billions" of dollars to improve the product, ref OF 1 line 55.
151622 -  ..
151623 - The author cites Microsoft's product innovations (though none are
151624 - actually listed), marketing skill, resources, ref OF 1 6811, and
151625 - ref OF 1 6302, and past history to predict NT will succeed in gaining
151626 - significant market share for large scale mainframe computing.
151627 - ref OF 1 6142  Author cites Microsoft's market success as answering
151628 - criticism of jealous competitors and observers who contend Microsoft
151629 - has not innovated but has only sold products bought from others.
151630 - ref OF 1 4822
151631 -
151632 -      This seems to overlook that Microsoft was positioned to finance
151633 -      marketing and was awarded the credibility to sustain it by having
151634 -      a "monopoly" on the operating system for the IBM PC. There could
151635 -      be only one operation system, and IBM gave Microsoft credibility
151636 -      in a fledgling market, that then generated the cash to finance
151637 -      marketing.  This gave Microsoft a big "moat" to protect it from
151638 -      the vagaries of competition.
151640 -       ..
151641 -      Suppose somebody else had that monopoly?  Would there be the same
151642 -      belief in Backoffice or MS Office that causes people to buy it
151643 -      instead of LotusSmarsuite or someother program that is not very
151644 -      helpful?
151645 -
151647 -  ..
151648 - Exchange is a Backoffice application that is similar to Lotus Notes,
151649 - ref OF 1 line 77.
151650 -
151652 -  ..
151653 - Cost/Benefit Favors PCs over NC??
151654 - PCs Cost $7K/Year; NCs May Cost Below $1K
151655 -
151656 - NT costs $372 per workstation v. $728 per person for existing Unix and
151657 - applications from Oracle and others, ref OF 1 line 180.
151658 -
151659 - Gartner Group in Stamford, Connecticut claim PCs on a network cost a
151660 - company about $7,000 per year to own and maintain, ref OF 1 line 456.
151661 - Author cites the average business PC sells for around $3,000 (which
151662 - may have dropped closer to $2K since it was written).  Larry Ellison
151663 - with Oracle promises that NCs will cost considerably less than $1,000.
151664 - That's just the beginning, say NC evangelists. They argue that the
151665 - machines will radically reduce the administrative costs of corporate
151666 - networks, ref OF 1 line 462, per article in Forbes ASAP, ref SDS 11
151667 - line 150.
151669 -  ..
151670 - Gates cites lack of NC sales as evidence the PC provides greater
151671 - "empowerment" (i.e. value, functionality) at less cost than the PC,
151672 - ref OF 1 line 299, ref OF 1 line 485.
151673 -
151674 -
151676 -  ..
151677 - Zero Administration Windows
151678 -
151679 - This is an effort by Microsoft to reduce the cost of using Windows NT
151680 - in order to compete with lower costing NC and Java systems,
151681 - ref OF 1 line 475. Authors cite skepticism about potential for
151682 - Microsoft to provide products that support Zero Administration
151683 - Windows, ref OF 1 line 479.  The implication is that Zero
151684 - Administration Windows could be "vaporware" (a marketing ploy to quell
151685 - market speculation that could otherwise stampede buyers toward NC or
151686 - cause buyers to hold out for completion of fiber optic cable
151687 - infrastructure that is hoped will make Network Computers (also called
151688 - Teleputers) competitive to PCs in responsiveness, reviewed on 960304.
151689 - ref SDS 11 6008   Risks of mainframe models is also analysed on
151690 - 960304. ref SDS 11 9007
151691 -
151692 -
151694 -  ..
151695 - Strategic Partnerniships, Alliances for Service
151696 -
151697 - Lack of service and support capability to maintain a reliable network
151698 - is the main weakness of NT and consequent advantage of IBM, at this
151699 - time.  NT does not have the track record for reliability and Microsoft
151700 - does not have a service organization, ref OF 1 line 86.  In 1995, DEC
151701 - was hoping a "strategic" partnership with Microsoft would provide the
151702 - service needed for NT to compete on reliability. ref SDS 7 3961  They
151703 - expected to benefit from gaining a larger volume of sales, rather than
151704 - because Microsoft has a large market share, rather than continue to
151705 - compete on quality and value added. ref SDS 7 2061  Microsoft benefits
151706 - from DEC's experience and established market position in the mainframe
151707 - business. ref SDS 7 2063  Microsoft chose DEC because Sun has no NT
151708 - related business, HP and IBM had a lot of Unix business, ref OF 1 line
151709 - 345.
151710 -
151711 -
151712 -
151713 -
1518 -

SUBJECTS
Mainframe Overtaken by Windows NT
Windows 95, Unix
Innovation Slow Because Market Forces
AT&T Rejected Microsoft Unix Proposal When
Innovation
Microsoft by AT&T
Genie in a Bottle
Cloths with no Emporer
Microsoft Rejected by AT&T - Too Small, Credibility

2611 -
261201 -  ..
261202 - NT Common Standard Improves on Having 36 Versions of Unix
261203 - AT&T Rejected Microsoft in 1982 as Too Small to Have Useful Ideas
261204 - Big is Better Attitude Denied Microsoft an Order Before Getting Big
261205 -
261206 - NT is credited as a Microsoft innovation aimed at replacing 36
261207 - versions of Unix as operating systems for large scale computer
261208 - settings.  Bill Gates and Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen submitted a
261209 - proposal to Bell Labs around 1982 for a joint-project to develop a
261210 - universal unix operating system.  AT&T rejected Microsoft's proposal,
261211 - according to the author, because they believed a small company, like
261212 - Microsoft at that time, could not have ideas, methods, and products
261213 - that could help a big company like AT&T. ref OF 1 014K
261215 -  ..
261216 - "Big is better" offers a fast and easy "mental crutch" that stifles
261217 - innovation, reviewed on 960612. ref SDS 14 Y34J
261219 -       ..
261220 -      Welch Rejected Too Small Applies Feel Good Management Big Better
261221 -
261222 -      A "big is better" perspective creates resistance to SDS and the
261223 -      Welch Company that is hard for some people to overcome by
261224 -      focusing on the merits of ideas, methods and products.  This is
261225 -      the credibility issue of the "Emperor with no Clothes" in
261226 -      reverse, promulgated from IBM's event on 951011. ref SDS 9 0080
261227 -      It is the "feel good management" paradigm that acts on emotion
261228 -      rather than analysis, reported on 911123. ref SDS 1 1331
261229 -
261230 -
261231 -
261232 -
261233 -
261234 -
261235 -
261236 -
2613 -

SUBJECTS
Lotus Notes & IBM, 910625
Exchange, MS Program Like Lotus Notes
IBM, Hewlett Packard, DEC
Oracle

3006 -
300701 -  ..
300702 - Digital Has Been Transformed by Reliance on Microsoft NT
300703 -
300704 - DEC's support of Microsoft NT seems to have been successful, since
300705 - well over one-third of Digital's $14.5 billion in 1996 revenues came
300706 - from hardware, software, and services related to NT, ref OF 1 line
300707 - 352.
300708 -
300709 -
300711 -  ..
300712 - Hewlett Packard Deal with Microsoft NT
300713 -
300714 - HP sought deal similar to DEC's but initially was held back by
300715 - commitment to Unix, ref OF 1 line 372.  HP changed an executive who
300716 - had favored Unix over NT and now HP expects to sell $1.1B in NT
300717 - servers, ref OF 1 line 376.
300718 -
300719 -
300721 -  ..
300722 - Oracle Faces Strong Competitive Challenge
300723 -
300724 - Oracle has recently lowered its prices to compete with Backoffice. ref
300725 - OF 1 line 175, and may face competitive challenges from NT due to
300726 - Microsoft's financial strength to compete on price, ref OF 1 line 184.
300727 -
300728 - NT costs $372 per workstation v. $728 per person for existing Unix and
300729 - applications from Oracle and others, ref OF 1 line 180.
300731 -  ..
300732 - Larry Ellison with Oracle promises that NCs will cost considerably
300733 - less than $1,000. That's just the beginning, say NC evangelists. They
300734 - argue that the machines will radically reduce the administrative costs
300735 - of corporate networks, ref OF 1 line 462, per article in Forbes ASAP,
300736 - ref SDS 11 line 150.
300737 -
300738 -
300740 -  ..
300741 - IBM Split Between Protecting Existing Mainframe and Supporting NT
300742 -
300743 - IBM's PC business unit has a strong effort underway to support NT, ref
300744 - OF 1 line 386, but it does not want to give up control of its account
300745 - by having Microsoft provide the operating system for its mainframes,
300746 - ref OF 1 line 407.
300747 -
300749 -  ..
300750 - Lotus Notes Impedes IBM and Microsoft Condominium
300751 -
300752 - Bill Gates says IBM's commitment to Lotus Notes impedes a business
300753 - deal with IBM like those with Hewlett Packard and DEC to run Windows
300754 - NT on IBM mainframe installations, because Lotus Notes competes with
300755 - Microsoft Exchange, which is part of Backoffice, ref OF 1 line 398.
300756 -
300757 -
300759 -  ..
300760 - Windows NT and Backoffice Challenge Oracle
300761 -
300762 - Article contends NT's SQL Server program, poses serious threat to
300763 - Oracle's $2B per year flagship database produce, ref OF 1 line 158,
300764 - ref OF 1 line 183.
300765 -
300766 -
300768 -  ..
300769 - Sun Microsystems Favors NC over NT
300770 -
300771 - In this article, Scott McNeally
300772 -
300773 -
300774 -
300775 -
3008 -

SUBJECTS
Lotus Notes & IBM, 910625
Exchange, MS Program Like Lotus Notes
Killer Application

3405 -
340601 -  ..
340602 - Lotus Notes Is Not Killer App
340603 -
340604 - Bill Gates is quoted as suggesting a summary analysis on the back of
340605 - an envelope shows IBM's purchase of Lotus Notes was not a profitable
340606 - acquisition. ref OF 1 9M9M  Gates indicates cost v. income analysis
340607 - shows there is very limited underlying value in using Lotus Notes, and
340608 - so initial sales merely reflect residual belief in Lotus and IBM, and
340609 - consequent hope that something useful can be done with Lotus Notes,
340610 - within the meaning of POIMS discussed with IBM on 941114. ref SDS 3
340611 - 2224  Since that is not possible, as seen from the presentation IBM
340612 - made of "advanced" technology on 951011, ref SDS 8 6811, and the
340613 - report the same day that nobody at IBM has found anything useful to do
340614 - with Lotus Notes. ref SDS 8 7366, in combination with the report on
340615 - 960502 that LN does not improve management, ref SDS 13 6883 138, then,
340616 - as a result, IBM cannot recover its $3.5B investment.
340618 -       ..
340619 -      [On 000324 SRI reports no projects to produce SDS type capability
340620 -      have succeeded. ref SDS 22 4877
340622 -       ..
340623 -      [On 001130 IBM gave up trying to get Lotus Notes to produce
340624 -      something useful. ref SDS 23 F26K
340626 -  ..
340627 - This relates to the meeting with IBM at COMDEX on 941114, ref SDS 3
340628 - line 403, analysis at ref SDS 4 line 135 and ref SDS 5 line 59.
340630 -  ..
340631 - Since Exchange is similar to Lotus Notes, it is difficult to see how
340632 - it will improve management productivity.  It can be a "killer app"
340633 - only because Microsoft is selling it and there is nothing else to buy
340634 - because nobody knows how to make something useful.  Exchange likely
340635 - is similar to W95 MS Outlook which has a calander, journal, notes and
340636 - other stuff that nobody every uses.
340638 -  ..
340639 - The author reports strong enthusiasm among hardware manufacturers to
340640 - use Windows NT in place of Unix, and pariticularly to have sales
340641 - relationships with Microsoft, similar to that announced by Digital in
340642 - 1995, because of the analysis Gates offers:
340643 -
340644 -
340645 -
340646 -
3407 -