CONTACTS 

SUBJECTS
Business Climate, Market Potential
Automation Trends, AI
Telecosm, Goliath at Bay, Gilder
Internet, Teleputer, $500 internet access
Bandwidth, Java, Unix
Internet, Gilder, Forbes ASAP, 960226
NC Market Promoted by Oracle, Sun, Netscape
Open Architecture Uses Horizontal Not Vertical Manufacture
Sun Micrososystem Servers Vertical Manufacturer IBM Mainframes, Apple

1811 -    ..
1812 - Summary/Objective
1813 -
181301 - Follow up ref SDS 14 0000, ref SDS 8 0000.
181302 -
181303 - This article is about the history, status and projected changes in the
181304 - personal computer industry, supplementing the article on the chip
181305 - industry.  It forcasts that the internet can displace the PC as the
181306 - primary instrument to apply automation for personal and organizational
181307 - work.  The new model Gilder describes does not mention integrating
181308 - information and time to create knowledge.  There is no real analysis
181309 - of usefulness, only that it can be produced, so let's spend a lot of
181310 - money to do it.  If enough people try this, something will work, and
181311 - those left standing are hailed as industry leaders, titans of wisdom
181312 - and visionairies.
181313 -
181314 -    [On 960612 history of PC shows market success mainly luck because
181315 -    culture of success resists change. ref SDS 26 2222]
181316 -
181317 -    [On 960629 Netscape Internet Applications and Directory management
181318 -    on servers. ref SDS 29 0001]
181319 -
181320 -    [On 970617 Fortune article on Windows NC and slow sales of Network
181321 -    Computer (NC) ref SDS 30 8442]
181322 -
181323 -    [On 990527 review of Christiansen's book on Innovator's Dilemma
181324 -    explains challenge of disruptive technology. ref SDS 33 5258]
181325 -
181326 -    [On 990625 executives fail because they don't like to execute good
181327 -    management practices, they like to talk. ref SDS 35 7344]
181328 -
181329 -    [On 990625 doctors do not follow their policy for effective
181330 -    communication because there is not enough time. ref SDS 34 4176]
181331 -
181332 -
181333 -
181334 -  ..
1814 -
1815 -
1816 - Progress
1817 -
181701 - Received an article in Forbes ASAP magazine on page 103 of the Feb 26,
181702 - 1996 issue.  It is mainly about efforts to create a faster internet
181703 - environment and a cheaper computer ($500 teleputer) to access it, with
181704 - the collateral effect of taking market share from Microsoft and Intel,
181705 - who dominate the PC environment and so are said to be relatively less
181706 - interested in creating a new market environment for computing.
181707 -
181708 -  ..
181709 - This article overlaps the interview of Grove in the article on the
181710 - chip industry, also, reviewed today. ref SDS 14 1005
181711 -
181712 -     [On 960629 Netscape explains applications, ref SDS 29 0001]
181713 -
181714 -     [On 970617 Fortune article on Gates' efforts to sell NT to replace
181715 -     Unix in server market. ref SDS 30 9488]
181716 -
181717 -  ..
181718 - Bill Gates is described as an exemplary business leader of the current
181719 - era, ref OF 9 3841; Grove is cited in the article on the chip
181720 - industry, as the top technology leader, ref SDS 14 8582, which
181721 - reflects strong performance by Microsoft and Intel over the past 10
181722 - years as the personal computer industry has prospered under favorable
181723 - market conditions.
181724 -
181725 -  ..
181726 - Analysis on 950710 explains forces, including the desire for
181727 - effectance, that created the personal computer industry. ref SDS 5
181728 - 2286  Personal objectives that drive the market were reviewed during a
181729 - meeting at Intel on 950927. ref SDS 6 8943 and ref SDS 6 2899
181730 -
181731 -     [On 960612 television broadcast reports randomness of events that
181732 -     positioned Gates and Microsoft to rise in an expanding market,
181733 -     ref SDS 26 2222]
181734 -
181735 -  ..
181736 - Grove at Intel is quoted as being focused on the clock speed of home
181737 - computers, ref OF 9 line 233, as a measure of usefulenss and therefore
181738 - attractiveness for the buyer.
181739 -
181740 -         [On 970617 Fortune article cites Bill Gates on "empowerment"
181741 -         of PCs as selling point, perceived value, ref SDS 30 3212.]
181742 -
181743 -      ..
181744 -     PC Open Architecture Uses Horizonal Not Vertical Manufacturing
181745 -
181746 -     Grove's rational is that the PC is an open architecture
181747 -     which takes advantage of faster processors as they are produced.
181748 -     Grove makes reference to Larry Ellison, COB of Oracle and a
181749 -     proponent of the teleputer, implying that this unit will have
181750 -     fixed capacity and hence limited usefulness and marketability.
181751 -     ref OF 9 N42Y
181752 -
181753 -         [On 960423 Ellison was interviewed by Charlie Rose.
181754 -         ref SDS 20 1111.]
181755 -
181756 -         [On 960612 history of PC showed IBM's selection of open
181757 -         architecture exposed it to completition, and gave monopoly to
181758 -         Microsoft for operating system. ref SDS 26 NB2W
181759 -
181760 -      ..
181761 -     It is not clear why the teleputer cannot benefit from faster
181762 -     processors. Gilder argues under his Law of Microcosm (now also
181763 -     Telecosm) that the $500 teleputer will have comparable capability
181764 -     by integrating functions on a single chip. ref OF 9 3E6N
181765 -
181766 -
181767 -
181768 -  ..
181769 - Teleputer, Java, Bandwidth, Internet Services
181770 -
181771 - The article contends that the internet can be made fast enough and
181772 - cheap enough to move customers in large numbers to opt for the $500
181773 - "teleputer" rather than a PC that uses Intel's processors and
181774 - Microsoft's operating system and other software, called the "Wintel"
181775 - environment.  A major technology challenge is whether medium bandwidth
181776 - can handle a lot of customers at a high enough clock speed.
181777 -
181778 -     [On 960523 Dave Vannier advised there is not enough bandwidth at
181779 -     Intel to review SDS and Com Metrics for adding "intelligence" to
181780 -     management. ref SDS 24 4933]
181781 -
181782 -  ..
181783 - The issue of reliability is not prominently discussed in the article;
181784 - there is mention that Milo Medin ran the largest IP net in the federal
181785 - government with 99.98% uptime, and this person has now been hired to
181786 - develop "broadband" capability for @Home. ref OF 9 SH4J  So now
181787 - investors are counting on him to solve the reliability issue for
181788 - general broadband internet traffic, as well.  No calculations or other
181789 - analysis is offered of the scope and status of the engineering needed.
181790 -
181791 -  ..
181792 - Backup is handled as a service by the internet provider. ref OF 9 QPUV
181793 -
181794 - Microsoft feels truly high speed bandwidth will not be available from
181795 - cable or otherwise for another 20 years, and so Microsoft's plans to
181796 - compete on the internet assume middle bandwidth, ref OF 9 0110, which
181797 - means current ISDN speeds.  This is arguing that PCs will remain
181798 - dominant because internet will be too slow and the telputer will be
181799 - too limited with respect to monitor, local storage and speed.  The
181800 - counter argument is that Java will become a simpler, faster operating
181801 - environment for the Internet than the Microsoft "fatware" of the PC
181802 - operating system. ref OF 9 0517
181803 -
181804 -     This subject that was taken up by Charlie Rose when he interviewed
181805 -     the CEO of Oracle, Larry Ellison, ref SDS 20 1111.
181806 -
181807 -     [See Fortune article a year later where Gates cites lack of NC
181808 -     sales as evidence PC model is more effective, ref SDS 30 2222.]
181809 -
181810 -  ..
181811 - A venture capitalist and former Intel executive, John Doerr, is cited
181812 - as a chief force in launching a lot of companies whose capitalization
181813 - is predicated on achieving broadband capability. ref OF 9 0344 and
181814 - ref OF 9 0388
181815 -
181816 -
181817 -      ..
181818 -     Is Internet Oversold - Lacks Content??
181819 -     Access to Information and Linking Relevant to Daily Work Missing
181820 -     Content on Internet Not Valuable for Business Management
181821 -
181822 -     Gilder quotes Gates as recognizing over zealousness in promoting
181823 -     the internet. ref OF 9 IH7H  Gates says the usefulness of the
181824 -     Internet is constrained by the need to perform Wordprocessing,
181825 -     spreadsheet and Powerpoint operations at the same time,
181826 -     ref OF 9 EP4O, indicating a continuing need for the personal
181827 -     computer multi-tasking environment of Windows to generate content.
181828 -
181829 -      ..
181830 -     Gilder reports some people feel the Internet is starved for
181831 -     "content." ref OF 9 0494
181832 -
181833 -          Content missing on the Internet is the ability to apply the
181834 -          power of a connected environment to aid human mental
181835 -          cognition that needs connections of cause and effect for
181836 -          managing daily working information.  SDS does this now, and
181837 -          may be able to fill the void to make the Internet a powerful
181838 -          enterprise management environment.
181839 -
181840 -             [On 960427 Cliff Stoll's presentation to Commonwealth Club
181841 -             in San Francisco, made same point. ref SDS 21 1111.
181842 -
181843 -             [On 971021 developed plans to deliver intelligence
181844 -             anytime anywhere on the Internet.
181845 -
181846 -      ..
181847 -     But, Gilder later cites the appeal of a computer that outperforms
181848 -     a current Wintel (Windows/Intel) machine on the Net and contains
181849 -     linking capabilities comparable to OLE for one-third the price.
181850 -     ref OF 9 line 706.
181851 -
181852 -          [On 971210 developed tools for SDS to meet this requirement.
181853 -          ref SDS 32 4387 and ref SDS 32 2141
181854 -
181855 -      ..
181856 -     Gates contends in an internal memo, evidently leaked to the press,
181857 -     that not only could he access far more information on the
181858 -     Internet, he could also find, search and browse it more readily on
181859 -     the Net than on a LAN or, for that matter, he might have pointed
181860 -     out, Gates's own hard drive or CD-ROM, ref OF 9 line 711.
181861 -
181862 -         [See later AP story on oversellying Internet, ref SDS 28
181863 -         3333.]
181864 -
181865 -      ..
181866 -     Grove seems to have adopted the view that the internet is a
181867 -     valuable tool, ref SDS 14 line 310, [reflecting Intel's
181868 -     presentation ideas for Asilomar, ref SDS 16 line 371].
181869 -
181870 -         [See later announcement of alliance with MIC for new internet
181871 -         tools, ref SDS 27 line 50.]
181872 -
181873 -      ..
181874 -     Grove demonstrated in Oct 95 at the Telecom 95 quadrennial
181875 -     exposition in Geneva. Intel's Proshare teleconferencing
181876 -     technology. And yet, what chiefly struck the viewer was the
181877 -     mediocrity of the partial-screen facial images. They were far
181878 -     lower in resolution than ordinary television, ref OF 9 line 1031.
181879 -
181880 -  ..
181881 - "LAN is dead," per Microsoft guru Nathan Myhrvold,
181882 - ref OF 9 line 105.
181883 -
181884 -
181885 - LSI has created the processor that can run the teleputer,
181886 - ref OF 9 line 845.
181887 -
181888 -
181889 -  ..
181890 -
181891 - Java is the OS for navigating the Web, per
181892 - ref OF 9 line 322, produced by Sun Microsystems, ref OF 9 line 33,
181893 - ref OF 9 line 1078.
181894 -
181895 -  ..
181896 -
181897 - Unix is the operating system for managing the Internet,
181898 - ref OF 9 line 629;
181899 - ..
181900 - Windows and NT are awkward systems according to Milo Medin who
181901 - is heading up effort to expand internet for @Home.
181902 -
181903 - @Home is a new broadband internet company,
181904 - ref OF 9 line 332, which Microsoft is also involved with, ref OF 9
181905 - line 131.
181906 -
181907 -     Milo Medin, @Home's network chief, is building a "scalable,
181908 -     extensible architecture for a cable-based World Wide Web." ref OF
181909 -     9 line 340.
181910 -
181911 -     Medin is a former NASA engineer who developed and ran an internet
181912 -     hub with 99.98% uptime, ref OF 9 line 585.
181913 -
181914 -     Currently the internet cannot handle broadband modems, ref OF 9
181915 -     line 738, due to impedence mismatch.  @Home is working to expand
181916 -     this over the next two years, ref OF 9 line 746.
181917 -
181918 -      ..
181919 -     Medin is designing ingenious hierarchical memory management and
181920 -     caching to conceal the mazes of slow routers, sluggish switches
181921 -     and narrowband wires that are used in parts of the Internet,
181922 -     ref OF 9 line 760.  The design is for a distributed computer
181923 -     system. with caches and shared-memory protocols that mirror and
181924 -     replicate a lot of the data so that it's always available locally,
181925 -     ref OF 9 line 771.  Their design recognizes that 80% of internet
181926 -     traffic is local, ref OF 9 line 782.
181927 -
181928 -     This makes the Internet a computer on a planet.
181929 -
181930 -     @Home will provide to customers tech support, storage and
181931 -     maintenance, ref OF 9 line 808.
181932 -
181933 -
181934 -  ..
181935 -
181936 - Netscape is evidently a competitor of Microsoft for developing
181937 - internet software. ref OF 9 6027  They are also working on the related
181938 - "Intranet" technology. (see below)
181939 -
181940 -      [On 960626 research by Netscape on intranets. ref SDS 28 8344]
181941 -
181942 -      They are partners with @Home; Medin is a friend of Marc
181943 -      Andreessen who is disigning software for a browser and to
181944 -      accomplish the memory management and caching needed to allow the
181945 -      Internet to handle broadband. ref OF 9 8274
181946 -
181947 -
181948 -  ..
181949 -
181950 - Bandwidth is expanding, similar to CPU processing power, by adding
181951 - fiber optic cabling to the utility infrastructure.  It is believed
181952 - that bandwidth can substitute for processing power. Bandwidth has been
181953 - constrained by Federal regulation, but the cable television industry
181954 - has been creating an infrastructure that can support broadband digital
181955 - transmissions. ref OF 9 8611
181956 -
181957 -     [Dave Vannier later used "bandwidth" to discuss Intel's inability
181958 -     to take up SDS because they are too busy with other initiatives,
181959 -     ref SDS 24 line 146.]
181960 -
181961 -     [See Fortune article on Windows NT and Microsoft's announcement of
181962 -     Zero Administration Windows to reduce cost of using PCs in order
181963 -     to compete with expected lower cost of NCs, ref SDS 30 line 213.]
181964 -
181965 -
181966 -  ..
181967 - Intranet:  Internet for a Single Company
181968 -
181969 - This has come up recently in the liturature.  It applies Internet
181970 - technology as an alternate to the LAN.  Probably takes advantage of
181971 - infrastructure and standards being developed for the Internet to
181972 - provide a common means to share information.
181973 -
181974 -      [It was cited later by Marcy at Intel as reflecting an
181975 -      environment for Communication Metrics, ref SDS 17 line 955.]
181976 -
181977 -      [See specific research at ref SDS 28 line 24.]
181978 -
181979 -
181980 -
1820 -

SUBJECTS
Virtual Office, Networked Computers
Productivity Not Improved by IT
Productivity Impeded Fast Change of Technology
Productivity Virtual Office Reduced by Bumbling
Bumbling Reduces Productivity Virtual Office
Network Computer
Reilability Failure NC Need Reduncy of PC
DKR, Knowledge Repository
Redundancy Mainframe Knowledge Repository Avoid Risk Bumbling

2912 -
291201 -  ..
291202 - Analysis - Reverting Back to Failed Mainframe Model
291203 -
291204 - Gates/Grove tout the Internet as a source of information and messaging
291205 - to be utilized by PCs, ref SDS 0 4444, while conceding information on
291206 - the Internet may not be all that valuable. ref SDS 0 2044  Gilder's
291207 - vision is that the value of the Internet is not entirely predicated on
291208 - information from other sources, including email capacity, but rather
291209 - the prospect of providing cheaper, yet stronger generic computer power
291210 - for people and businesses, i.e., computer on a planet.
291211 -
291212 - It is not clear how this idea differs from a centralized "mainframe"
291213 - system which past experience showed is unreliable and led to the
291214 - innovation of the PC.
291215 -
291216 -  ..
291217 - Gilder says the teleputer and telecoms model does not reflect the use
291218 - of mainframes. ref OF 9 0839
291219 -
291220 -     [On 960629 Netscape explains applications, ref SDS 29 0001]
291221 -
291222 -     [On 000305 Xanadu proposes permanent URL addresses for dynamic
291223 -     knowledge repository. ref SDS 37 0184]
291224 -
291225 -     [On 000331 Geletner proposes "cyberbody" universal environment.
291226 -     ref SDS 38 1440
291227 -
291228 -     [On 000610 Morris considers PC v Client idea. ref SDS 39 4195
291229 -
291230 -  ..
291231 - A concern about the central mainframe processing and storage
291232 - architecture arises from the risk of placing responsibility for the
291233 - operations of an organization and/or an individual in the hands of
291234 - another party.  This is presented as an advantage, ref OF 9 MF5L, and
291235 - it can be where reliability and security are not critical.  However,
291236 - when decisions are based on specific information, then reliability and
291237 - security of storage and access become critical factors that require
291238 - self-interest protection.  The seeming advantage of having "experts"
291239 - and a big company look after critical information is overtaken by the
291240 - fact that the people doing the work do not have an interest in the
291241 - record.  Their primary interest is in the hardware and software
291242 - systems, not the information stored, except to the extent it enables
291243 - experimenting with improvements that lead to system failures, loss of
291244 - data, or laxness in security that allows kids, spies, and people
291245 - making improvements to destroy critical information.  In sum, giving
291246 - up control to people who lack self-interest incurs the risk of
291247 - bumbling.
291248 -
291249 -      [On 991221 two years of experience shows central servers are not
291250 -      reliable; need redundancy. ref SDS 36 6935]
291251 -
291252 -  ..
291253 - When problems occur, a central storage facility expedites by providing
291254 - customers with endless buttons to push on the telephone that lead to
291255 - the wrong place, then eventually to customer support people recently
291256 - hired and so are unable to provide help, except to first read their
291257 - manual that says the system is okay so it looks like a customer
291258 - problem.  There is no means to contact a responsible person and direct
291259 - that work be performed, because each customer is one of many, and so
291260 - is in a que waiting for someone to get around to looking at the
291261 - problem.  At that point, the customer representatives write up part of
291262 - the problem and look into a centralized knowledge base that results in
291263 - compound confusion that doubles or triples the time to fix the
291264 - problem. These measures reduce costs and increase profits for the
291265 - central storge vendor running the mainframe, but cause mistakes,
291266 - delay, loss, conflict, crisis and calimity for customers.
291267 -
291268 -      [On 020712 example of weblog information disappearing and links
291269 -      failing to open required information. ref SDS 40 0001
291270 -
291271 -  ..
291272 - Centralized mainframe servers facilitate communication by providing an
291273 - environment where information and connections are sent and received
291274 - and stored for common use.  This improves upon traditional centralized
291275 - mail service by strengthening the ability to build and maintain shared
291276 - meaning.
291277 -
291278 - Browser and Internet technology enable people to benefit from linking
291279 - and organizing structure of SDS for showing cause and effect, i.e.,
291280 - delivering "intelligence." ref SDS 28 9637
291281 -
291282 -      [On 960629 Netscape promotes collaboration. ref SDS 29 1533]
291283 -
291284 -      [On 971021 began project to port SDS to Internet. ref SDS 31 9999
291285 -
291286 -  ..
291287 - But experience shows that web sites are volitile: they come and go
291288 - based on circumstances of individuals and organizations.  Clicking on
291289 - a link often produces a message that the address is no long supported.
291290 - So not only is there a reliability issue, there is also the question
291291 - of whether particular resources will be consistently available when
291292 - needed, when others are making such decisions.  Thus, management
291293 - performance is at risk in such an environment.  The only apparent
291294 - solution is redundancy.
291295 -
291296 -
291297 -       ..
291298 -      Intranet
291299 -
291300 -      This is an internal internet for a single organization, and so
291301 -      may solve the security problem.  It seems to still boil down to a
291302 -      LAN.  So the hardware/software reliability problem still comes
291303 -      up, plus the fickleness of maintaining particular bodies of
291304 -      information.  When person decides a project is over and so
291305 -      archives or simply removes information, there is o way of knowing
291306 -      what pointers may be using it.
291307 -
291308 -  ..
291309 - Reliability of networks, LANS, Internet is crucial.
291310 -
291311 - The risk of downtime due to constant bumbling is overwhelming, per
291312 - above. ref SDS 0 RV8H
291313 -
291314 -      [On 960501 meeting with Fluor Daniel illustrated problem of poor
291315 -      reliability. ref SDS 22 3823]
291316 -
291317 -      [On 960626 AP reports poor reliability of Internet. ref SDS 28
291318 -      3333]
291319 -
291320 - Technology growth/advance under this teleputer scenario would be
291321 - constrained by what the system operators do, similar to a big company,
291322 - the IBM, Ma Bell, model of slow innovation.
291323 -
291324 -      [On 991221 two years of experience shows central servers are not
291325 -      reliable; need redundancy. ref SDS 36 6935]
291326 -
291327 -  ..
291328 - Replacing Microsoft with SunMicro Systems as the sole source for Java
291329 - to operate the internet, seems to be a non-starter with respect to the
291330 - goal of introducing competition in the operating system market.
291331 -
291332 -
291333 -      ..
291334 -     Opportunity:
291335 -     Integrating and Organizing Methodology
291336 -
291337 -     The entire article overlooks the importance of integrating what is
291338 -     transmitted and/or received into personal and organizational work
291339 -     flow under POIMS technology.
291340 -
291341 -     The information people use the most is in the human mind, not on
291342 -     the Internet.  People work and otherwise exist thinking about what
291343 -     so and so said, what they saw, read, felt, what they thought. This
291344 -     is not on the Internet and needs to be integrated with anything
291345 -     that may be acquired on the net, and so relates to General Hatch's
291346 -     question of how to organize all the stuff on the net, ref SDS 18
291347 -     line 171, ref SDS 18 line 693, and integrate it smoothly into
291348 -     personal and organizational work flow.
291349 -
291350 -
291351 -
291352 -
2914 -

SUBJECTS
Investors

3004 -
300401 -  ..
300402 - This article lists venture capitalists located in the Bay Area:
300403 -
300404 -       John Doerr     ref OF 9 line 257
300405 -       Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers.
300406 -
300407 -          He is said to be a strong participant in cutting edge
300408 -          technology.
300409 -
300410 -       Roger McNamee
300411 -
300412 -
300413 -
300414 -       Herb Allen
300415 -
300416 -
300417 -
300418 -
300419 -
300420 -
300421 -
300422 -
300423 -
300424 -
300425 -
300426 -
3005 -