THE WELCH COMPANY
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S U M M A R Y


DIARY: May 11, 1994 08:59 AM Wednesday; Rod Welch

Completed review articles in HBR on POIMS and SDS concepts.

1...Summary/Objective
2...Integrate Action & Analysis
......Guesswork, Analysis, Action


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SUBJECTS
Investor Considerations for Projects
Strategies for Start up Enterprises
Business Plan
Project Management, Methods, Procedures

0706 -    ..
0707 - Summary/Objective
0708 -
070801 - Follow up work at ref SDS 1 line 48, and ref SDS 2 line 65, which
070802 - review articles at ref OF 6 - 13, in the HBR for March-April 1994.
070803 - This record reviews one more article.
070804 -
070805 -
070806 - This article seems to recognize some of the challenges in brining a
070807 - product like SDS to market.
070808 -
070809 - Author notes that creating a large new market calls for a revolution-
070810 - ary idea, ref OF 15 line 178.  The risk of undertaking visionary
070811 - ideas are explained at ref OF 15 line 406.
070812 -
070813 - Start-ups use streamlined research and planning, per ref OF 15 line
070814 - 453, also ref OF 15 line 13, ref OF 15 line 95.
070815 -
070816 -      Relying on focus groups can be misleading; author cites example
070817 -      of people saying copy machines were unnecessary, because they
070818 -      were satisfied with carbon paper, ref OF 18 15 line 473, so
070819 -      entrepreneurs have to trust their analysis of what demand would
070820 -      be after the market recognizes the benefits of new methods.
070821 -
070822 -
070823 - Predicting revenue streams is a "blind guess," per ref OF 15 line 502.
070824 -
070825 - Visionary entrepreneurs must guard against making competitors rich
070826 - from their work, per ref OF 15 line 511.
070827 -
070828 -      Many concepts are difficult to prove but, once proven, easy to
070829 -      imitate. Unless the pioneer is protected by sustainable barriers
070830 -      to entry, the benefits of a hard-fought revolution can become a
070831 -      public good rather than a boon to the innovator.
070832 -
070833 -      I am somewhat concerned about this prospect.  It is very diffi-
070834 -      cult to get the market to recognize the fundamental power of
070835 -      POIMS concepts; but, once that occurs, I would expect it is not
070836 -      that difficult to create an SDS product with the fundamental
070837 -      relationship between time and information, using diary records to
070838 -      schedule follow up and creating citation tools.
070839 -
070840 -      Morris has estimated it would take 6 months to create an SDS
070841 -      product from scratch. I sense it might turn out to take longer,
070842 -      because initially, developers will resist putting in features
070843 -      they feel are marginal or even unnecessary.  You have to use SDS
070844 -      for awhile before you bump into the situations that make clear
070845 -      why each piece is needed.  Developers will be prisoners of their
070846 -      experience, and feel for example that other tools adequately
070847 -      provide file listing and accessing, without realizing the
070848 -      integration between listing files and working and reporting on
070849 -      what was done.
070850 -
070851 -
070852 - Integrate Action & Analysis
070853 -
070854 - The author indicates that entrepreneurs starting a new business
070855 - "integrate action and analysis." ref OF 15 line 606.  In large going
070856 - concerns, analysis is a step that preceeds implemention, but with
070857 - start-up ventures, some analysis spawns action, which then feeds
070858 - ideas for further analysis, ref OF 15 line 634.
070859 -
070860 -      Guesswork, Analysis, Action
070861 -
070862 -      The author identifies this as the process entrepreneurs use to
070863 -      accomplish their work, ref OF 15 line 740.  Therefore, I assign
070864 -      the PM methods subject to this publication as support for the
070865 -      soundness of the concept.
070866 -
070867 -      Wonder how the author would feel about automating this
070868 -      "management process," to do a better job?
070869 -
070870 -
070871 -
070872 -
070873 -
070874 -