THE WELCH COMPANY
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rod@welchco.com


S U M M A R Y


DIARY: January 16, 2013 05:22 PM Wednesday; Rod Welch

Research ice age and interglacial warming research.

1...Summary/Objective


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CONTACTS 

SUBJECTS
Climate Change Ice age Global Warming Glacial Interglacial Periods                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        
0703 -                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     
0703 -    ..
0704 - Summary/Objective                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  
0705 -                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     
070501 - Follow up                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         
070502 -                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
070503 -                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
070504 -                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
070506 -  ..
0706 -                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     
0707 -                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     
0708 - Progress                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     
0709 -                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     
070901 - Yesterday, Morris explained theories on causes of ice ages from                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
070902 - warming and cooling of the earth.  He taught this subject as part of                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              
070903 - a class on "Green Electrical Engineering.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         
070905 -  ..
070906 - Morris seemed to indicate the major causes of ice ages are                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        
070907 - fluctuations in thermal energy from the sun that occur over 100s of                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
070908 - thousands of years, together with insulation from cloud cover, i.e.,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              
070909 - moisture in the atmosphere.  He seemed to indicate that changes in the                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
070910 - tilt of the earth's axis is a minor factor.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
070912 -  ..
070913 - This evening, research on the Internet found...                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
070914 -                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
070915 -    1.  What causes ice-ages?                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      
070916 -                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
070917 -              http://culter.colorado.edu/~saelias/glacier.html                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
070919 -         ..
070920 -        Quatenary - seems to be the most recent and current ice age.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
070921 -                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
070922 -        1.  Fluctuations in the amount of insolation (incoming solar                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
070923 -            radiation) are the most likely cause of large-scale changes                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
070924 -            in Earth's climate during the Quaternary.  In other words,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
070925 -            variations in the intensity and timing of heat from the sun                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
070926 -            are the most likely cause of the glacial/interglacial                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  
070927 -            cycles.  This solar variable was neatly described by the                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
070928 -            Serbian scientist, Milutin Milankovitch, in 1938.  There                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
070929 -            are three major components of the Earth's orbit about the                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              
070930 -            sun that contribute to changes in our climate.  First, the                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
070931 -            Earth's spin on its axis is wobbly, much like a spinning                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
070932 -            top that starts to wobble after it slows down.  This wobble                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
070933 -            amounts to a variation of up to 23.5 degrees to either side                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
070934 -            of the axis.  The amount of tilt in the Earth's rotation                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
070935 -            affects the amount of sunlight striking the different parts                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
070936 -            of the globe.  The greater the tilt, the stronger the                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  
070937 -            difference in seasons (i.e., more tilt equals sharper                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  
070938 -            differences between summer and winter temperatures).  The                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              
070939 -            range of motion in the tilt (from left-of-center to                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
070940 -            right-of-center and back again) takes place over a period                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              
070941 -            of 41,000 years.  As a result of a wobble in the Earth's                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
070942 -            spin, the position of the Earth on its elliptical path                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
070943 -            changes, relative to the time of year.  This phenomenon is                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
070944 -            called the precession of equinoxes.  The cycle of equinox                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              
070945 -            precession takes 23,000 years to complete.  In the growth                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              
070946 -            of continental ice sheets, summer temperatures are probably                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
070947 -            more important than winter.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
070949 -             ..
070950 -        2.  How does the ice build up?                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
070951 -                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
070952 -            Throughout the Quaternary period, high latitude winters                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
070953 -            have been cold enough to allow snow to accumulate. It is                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
070954 -            when the summers are cold, (i.e., summers that occur when                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              
070955 -            the sun is at its farthest point in Earth's orbit), that                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
070956 -            the snows of previous winters do not melt completely. When                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
070957 -            this process continues for centuries, ice sheets begin to                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              
070958 -            form. Finally, the shape of Earth's orbit also changes. At                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
070959 -            one extreme, the orbit is more circular, so that each                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  
070960 -            season receives about the same amount of insolation. At                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
070961 -            the other extreme, the orbital ellipse is stretched                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
070962 -            longer, exaggerating the differences between seasons. The                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              
070963 -            eccentricity of Earth's orbit also proceeds through a long                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
070964 -            cycle, which takes 100,000 years. Major glacial events in                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              
070965 -            the Quaternary have coincided when the phases of axial                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
070966 -            tilt, precession of equinoxes and eccentricity of orbit                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
070967 -            are all lined up to give the northern hemisphere the least                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
070968 -            amount of summer insolation.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           
070970 -             ..
070971 -        3.  What makes the ice melt when the glaciation is over?                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
070972 -                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
070973 -            Major interglacial periods have occurred when the three                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
070974 -            factors line up to give the northern hemisphere the                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
070975 -            greatest amount of summer insolation. The last major                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
070976 -            convergence of factors giving us maximum summer warmth                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
070977 -            occurred 11,000 years ago, at the transition between the                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
070978 -            last glaciation and the current interglacial, the Holocene.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
070979 -            During the late Pleistocene, the Rocky Mountain regions of                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
070980 -            Canada and the regions farther west were almost engulfed in                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
070981 -            the Cordilleran Ice Sheet, while most of Canada east of the                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
070982 -            Rockies and the north-central and northeastern United                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  
070983 -            States were covered by the Laurentide Ice Sheet. The divide                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
070984 -            between the two ice sheets lay east of the Rockies, with                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
070985 -            the two ice bodies meeting near the U.S.-Canadian border in                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
070986 -            eastern Montana. The Laurentide ice sheet is thought to                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
070987 -            have been as much as two miles thick at the center.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
070988 -                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
070990 -         ..
070991 -    2.  Mail Online                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
070993 -         ..
070994 -        Natural tilts in earth's axis cause ice ages, says Harvard                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
070995 -        scientist - and their cycles could help predict the next one                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
070996 -                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
070997 -              http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2095571/Natural-tilts-earths-axis-alter-temperature-cause-ice-ages-says-Harvard-scientist.html                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
070998 -                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
070999 -              http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2095571/Natural-tilts-earths-axis-alter-temperature-cause-ice-ages-says-Harvard-scientist.html#ixzz2IByQAsEI                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      
071001 -         ..
071002 -        By.................... ROB WAUGH                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           
071004 -         ..
071005 -        Date.................. 02 February 2012                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
071006 -                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
071007 -        1.  The idea that slight shifts in Earth's axis might have been                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
071008 -            enough to trigger the ice ages is a century old.  But a                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
071009 -            Harvard earth sciences Professor Peter Huybers has finally                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
071010 -            proved it, using computer models to test competing ideas -                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
071011 -            and finding that earth's tilting axis is the only one that                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
071012 -            works.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
071014 -             ..
071015 -        2.  The finding could have profound implications for our                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
071016 -            understanding of our planet's climate - and could, its                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
071017 -            author says, be crucial to 'predicting long-term changes in                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
071018 -            future climate.'                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
071020 -             ..
071021 -        3.  Two 'cycles' in the way Earth's axis spins have an effect                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              
071022 -            on the cycle - one lasting 10,000 years and one lasting                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
071023 -            roughly 40,000 years.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  
071025 -             ..
071026 -        4.  When they align correctly, ice melts.  At the other                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
071027 -            extreme, glaciers advance.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
071029 -             ..
071030 -        5.  The idea that these could dictate the cycles of glaciation                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
071031 -            in Earth's climate was first proposed by Serbian                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
071032 -            geophysicist Milutin Milankovitch in the first half of the                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
071033 -            twentieth century                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      
071034 -                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
071035 -        6.  'These periods of deglaciation saw massive climate                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     
071036 -            changes,' Huybers said. 'Sea level increased by 130                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
071037 -            meters, temperatures rose by about 5 degrees C, and                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
071038 -            atmospheric CO2 went from 180 to 280 parts per million.'                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
071040 -             ..
071041 -        7.  We ought to understand what caused these massive changes in                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
071042 -            past climate if we are to predict long-term changes in                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
071043 -            future climate with any confidence.'                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
071044 -                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
071045 -        8.  'And at least now we know with greater than 99 percent                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
071046 -            confidence that shifts in earth's axis are among the                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
071047 -            factors that contribute to deglaciation.'                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              
071049 -             ..
071050 -        9.  When both cycles align 'correctly', the glaciers retreat                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
071051 -            rapidly.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
071053 -             ..
071054 -       10.  'When you get that alignment, the radiation that the                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
071055 -            Northern Hemisphere receives during summer increases by                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
071056 -            tens of watts per meter squared, and if large Northern ice                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
071057 -            sheets are present, they tend to disintegrate.'                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        
071059 -             ..
071060 -       11.  'These statistical findings agree exactly with what Milutin                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
071061 -            Milankovitch, a Serbian geophysicist, proposed in the first                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
071062 -            half of the 20th century.'                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
071064 -             ..
071065 -       12.  Huybers emphasises that these cycles are only one factor                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
071066 -            among many.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
071068 -             ..
071069 -       13.  'It could also be that orbital forcing causes a rise is                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
071070 -            atmospheric CO2, and that it?s the increased CO2 that                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  
071071 -            drives the loss of ice sheets,' he said.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
071073 -             ..
071074 -       14.  'In all likelihood, both CO2 and increased summer radiation                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
071075 -            contribute to deglaciation.  They?re both expected to push                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
071076 -            the climate system toward less ice.'                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
071077 -                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
071079 -         ..
071080 -    3.  Wikipedia                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  
071081 -                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
071082 -              http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_age                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
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