THE WELCH COMPANY
440 Davis Court #1602
San Francisco, CA 94111-2496
415 781 5700


S U M M A R Y


DIARY: July 3, 2001 02:04 PM Tuesday; Rod Welch

Weak economy software stocks fall on hard times.

1...Summary/Objective
2...Internet is Not Sufficient to Grow Computer Sales
3...Killer Application Needed for Computer Industry


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SUBJECTS
Recession Reduced Earnings Stock Prices Decimated
Computer Software Enterprise Sector Earnings Sales Decline
Enterprise/Knowledge Management Does Not Improve Productivity, Reliab
Compelling Application Needed to Increase Sales of PCs
Killer App Needed for SDS Business Plan

4107 -    ..
4108 - Summary/Objective
4109 -
410901 - Follow up ref SDS A2 0000, ref SDS A0 0000.
410902 -
410903 - Reuters article today reports shares of leading software companies
410904 - fell on Tuesday after the firms said pressure from the U.S economy and
410905 - the global slowdown in information technology spending would wallop
410906 - results for the latest quarter. ref OF 13 0001
410907 -
410908 - Aligns with report yesterday that the enterprise management software
410909 - sector was having slower sales. ref SDS A2 0001
410910 -
410911 - The more e-business and Internet related the product, the greater the
410912 - chance it's in trouble right now. ref OF 13 HF8H
410913 -
410914 - There's a real question about their survivability and market demand.
410915 - ref OF 13 PG9F
410916 -
410917 - Another article reports that PC sales are lagging behind projections,
410918 - and causing earnings and stock prices to drop; companies are gearing
410919 - up for a major marketing campaign to get people to buy a new computer.
410920 - ref OF 14 0001
410921 -
410922 - Intel is contributing by increasing the speed of processors from 1.4
410923 - to 1.8 and later to 2 GHz. ref OF 14 3Z6M
410924 -
410925 - Students returning to school may increase sales of PCs. ref OF 14 7Z6M
410926 -
410927 - The PC industry, Intel, and the rest of the semiconductors industry,
410928 - is weathering the worst year in memory.  Yesterday, the Semiconductors
410929 - Industry Association grimly announced that chip sales declined even
410930 - further in May. ref OF 14 HI7M
410931 -
410932 -
410933 -  ..
410934 - Internet is Not Sufficient to Grow Computer Sales
410935 - Killer Application Needed for Computer Industry
410936 -
410937 - Only a truly compelling new capability will make buyers open their
410938 - wallets enough to turn the industry around. The Internet got people
410939 - excited in 1998 and 1999, and that coincided with a cycle of unusually
410940 - low PC prices at the same time. This spurred sales volumes that won't
410941 - likely be seen again for some time--no matter how the chip inside the
410942 - computer is marketed. ref OF 14 JJ9I
410943 -
410944 -      On 010223 Intel's rep at a world conference on technology
410945 -      reported there are no "killer" applications, and that leaders
410946 -      should figure out how to use technology for things customers
410947 -      want, rather than craft a vision for the future. ref SDS 94 WG8O
410948 -
410949 -         [On 010705 Actionbase may be a compelling application.
410950 -         ref SDS A4 0001
410951 -
410952 -      Intel's representative further said that it is hard to figure out
410953 -      what customers want. ref SDS 94 WG8O
410954 -
410955 -      On 001207 there was a report that too many people were having too
410956 -      many problems. ref SDS 89 V54M  This seems to create compelling
410957 -      demand for an application that avoids and solves problems.
410958 -
410959 -      Today, concern about low stock prices caused by poor earnings due
410960 -      to falling productivity, ref SDS 0 0001, indicates an application
410961 -      that improves productivity would be compelling?
410962 -
410963 -         [On 010705 stock prices continue to fall, increases demand for
410964 -         techology that improves productivity. ref SDS A3 0001
410965 -
410966 -
410967 -
410968 -
410969 -
410970 -
410971 -
410972 -
410973 -
410974 -
410975 -
4110 -