THE WELCH COMPANY
440 Davis Court #1602
San Francisco, CA 94111-2496
415 781 5700
rodwelch@pacbell.net


S U M M A R Y


DIARY: April 11, 2000 01:14 AM Tuesday; Rod Welch

Open source companies suffer loss of confidence by stock market.

1...Summary/Objective
2...Building New Markets Requires New Standards for Productive Utility
.....Open Source Business Models ard Hard to Generate Rewards

ACTION ITEMS.................. Click here to comment!

1...Need Eric's comments on viability of open source development model,

CONTACTS 
0201 - Bootstrap Institute
020101 - Mr. Douglas C. Engelbart, Ph.D.

SUBJECTS
Sponsor/Stakeholder Planning
Preliminary analysis
Evaluate Market Conditions
Evaluate Progress Prospects
Market Potential
Open Source Evaluation
Civilization Improved
Consulting in New SDS Market
Open Source Development Freeware
Market Viability Open Source
Open Source Market Viability
Stock Market Devaluing Linux Companies, Red Hat
Open Source Business Model Hard to Generate Earnings
Red Hat, 000411

1916 -
1916 -    ..
1917 - Summary/Objective
1918 -
191801 - Follow up ref SDS 46 0000, ref SDS 45 0000.
191802 -
191803 - On 000403 Eric Armstrong submitted a strong explanation for the open
191804 - source business model. On 000406 I wrote to Jack Park on this.
191805 - ref SDS 48 0001  Today, there is evidence that open source has lost
191806 - some confidence of investors.  This is an indicator of market
191807 - potential, but is not a conclusive factor in the eventual success of
191808 - this method.
191810 -  ..
191811 - Need Eric's comments on viability of open source development model,
191812 - based on his analysis on 000403. ref SDS 46 2954
191813 -
191814 -     This might be a good candidate for a presentation to the DKR
191815 -     team, including progress on sponsorship.
191816 -
191817 -     How much funding is needed?
191819 -      ..
191820 -     If funding is successful, what will be produced, and who will do
191821 -     the work.  Will the DKR team leave their present assignments, and
191822 -     join the DKR effort full-time, per questions 3 - 7 in analysis on
191823 -     000324? ref SDS 38 7074
191824 -
191825 -
191826 -
191827 -
191829 -  ..
1919 -
1920 -
1921 - Progress
1922 -
192201 - Building New Markets Requires New Standards for Productive Utility
192202 -
192203 - Follow up ref SDS 46 2954.
192205 -      ..
192206 -     Open Source Business Models ard Hard to Generate Rewards
192207 -
192208 -     Follow up ref SDS 46 5956, ref SDS 45 4622.
192209 -
192210 -     ABC News wire service article report on hopes for a Conference
192211 -     this weekend to restore flagging fortunes of open source business
192212 -     model, centered around Linux. ref OF 5 0001
192214 -         ..
192215 -        http://www.abcnews.go.com/wire/US/reuters20000410_2303.html
192217 -      ..
192218 -     The recent ruling against Microsoft is fueling hope that Linux and
192219 -     other open source vendors can gain ground at the expense of
192220 -     Microsoft. ref OF 5 5440
192221 -
192222 -       [On 000421 Eric Armstrong proposes ideas for open source
192223 -       licensing. ref SDS 50 3055
192225 -        ..
192226 -       [On 000422 Paul Fernhout wants DKR project to follow Open Source
192227 -       guidelines, and notes this can make money. ref SDS 51 3050
192229 -        ..
192230 -       [On 000831 Paul promotes Termite production method that empowers
192231 -       programmers to have fun. ref SDS 52 0001 and ref SDS 52 2G7I
192232 -     ..
192233 -     Euphoric investors initially could not get enough of Linux
192234 -     companies -- which they viewed as contenders to Microsoft's
192235 -     throne. "Pretty clearly, the enthusiasm that the market had late
192236 -     in '99 has cooled and the stock prices are all down
192237 -     significantly". ref OF 5 0782
192239 -      ..
192240 -     Red Hat stock was trading at 36-1/16 on the Nasdaq on Monday, down
192241 -     from a 52-week high of 151-5/16, while VA Linux has slipped 83
192242 -     percent from a high point of 320 this year to 53-5/8 on Monday.
192243 -     ref OF 5 3384  Red Hat was cited by Eric Armstrong in analysis on
192244 -     000403 indicating that the value stream for the open source
192245 -     business model is not evident. ref SDS 46 5956
192246 -
192247 -        [On 000422 RedHat is cited to illustrate how to make money
192248 -        using open source business model. ref SDS 51 1363
192250 -         ..
192251 -        [On 001028 Linux cited as example of open source success.
192253 -         ..
192254 -        [On 001101 article published Linux enountering problems due to
192255 -        poor management practices endemic to open source. ref SDS 53
192256 -        HW9F
192258 -      ..
192259 -     Key factors cited is showing market demand for open source
192260 -     products, and getting more developers to support open source
192261 -     efforts. ref OF 5 5244
192263 -      ..
192264 -     Doug's DKR project may help this movement.
192266 -  ..
192267 - On 000407 listed this as possible agenda issue for project meetings.
192268 - ref SDS 49 6973
192269 -
192270 -
192271 -
192272 -
192273 -
192274 -
192275 -
1923 -
1924 -
Distribution. . . . See "CONTACTS"